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Saudi Arabia and commodity currencies

With Iran refusing to play ball on cuts to oil production, Saudi Arabia is tightening its regime of economic austerity.

Annual tax revenues will go up by ยฃ70bn and previously free services such as health care will be privatised.

It is instructive to see that the world's second-biggest oil producer feels under pressure to act, despite its huge foreign reserves.

There are those who argue that Saudi should devalue its riyal, which has kept its peg to the US dollar unchanged for three decades.

However, in common with other oil producers, the leadership in Riyadh is sticking to the peg because 90% of the country's exports are priced in dollars.

There has been a correction of nearly 50% to the February-March oil rally.

The sensation is that investors might not be as sanguine about the economic outlook as they had been thought to be.

As a result, the commodity currencies were the poorest performers on Monday.

The Canadian and Australian dollars lost a cent each to sterling, -0.5%, with the Norwegian krone beating them by only a whisker.

South Africa's rand fell by twice that much and the NZ dollar brought up the rear with a daily loss of -1.4%. The safe-haven Japanese yen led the field for a second day.

Pound Sterling Catches a Break

Except in the rarest of circumstances, major currencies do not make spectacular gains or losses for days on end.

So it was with sterling on Monday, when it took second place to the yen, strengthening by an average of 0.4% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies.

There was no suggestion that investors had found new enthusiasm for the pound. It was more a case of them being unable to justify giving it another whack.

There was little to chose between the pound, the euro, the franc and the Swedish krona and the US dollar was only a quarter of a cent behind them.

The US dollar took a small step forward overnight after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans spoke of two rate increases this year.

The Kiwi took a step backwards in response to a 13-point fall in NZ business confidence, from 15% to 2%. The Aussie firmed when the Reserve Bank of Australia left its Cash Rate unchanged at 2%.

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Pound Sterling Index

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Bank of England trade-weighted sterling effective exchange rate index (Jan 2005 = 100)

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Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)

A reading above 100 means the currency is expensive relative to its long-run historical average. Below 100 means it is undervalued.

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง British Pound
105.30
Cheap Expensive
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Euro
103.63
Cheap Expensive
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Dollar
104.89
Cheap Expensive
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australian Dollar
110.59
Cheap Expensive
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Swiss Franc
119.88
Cheap Expensive

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GBP/EUR Market-implied Forecast
Spot: 1.1463 12M: 1.1266
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GBP/USD Market-implied Forecast
Spot: 1.3326 12M: 1.3268
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