U.S. Dollar's Retreat Opens Door to EUR/USD at 1.20 by Year-End

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate has embarked on a recovery journey that could ultimately see it hit levels last seen in 2018, but only if the Dollar has finally embarked on a long-term decline.

The Euro-to-Dollar rate crossed a Rubicon last week and in the process set itself up for further gains that could be aided this week by unrest in the U.S., an upbeat mood in global markets and a likely European Central Bank (ECB) supplement to its support for the Eurozone economy. 

The Euro-to-Dollar rate rose in the final session of the week, making for five back-to-back days of gains that may have been aided in final hours as a collection of voices and participants threw in the towel on bearish forecasts and wagers against the single currency.

The Euro was trading softer on Thursday but had held above the 1.10 handle that's often proven an impediment to gains by the single currency in the recent past, although the road ahead is bumpy and could see appetite for the Euro tested by both the European Central Bank (ECB) and EU politics. 

The Euro-to-Dollar crossed a de facto Rubicon Wednesday as the market welcomed European Commission proposals on the financing of a coronavirus recovery fund, although the analysts community is divided in its views on the outlook and some have warned that the Euro could soon reverse course. 

The Euro-to-Dollar rate recovered the 1.09 handle and was aiming higher on Tuesday but faces technical resistance immediately overhead and is still being tipped to for notable losses in the weeks ahead, which will see the single currency burdened by a powder keg of political and economic risks. 

The Euro reclaimed earlier lost ground from the Dollar last week but pared gains ahead of the holiday weekend and might be susceptible in the coming days to disappointment over the latest European response to the coronavirus crisis, which comes as investors digest a truckload of fresh geopolitcal risks.

The EUR/USD exchange rate failed to clear the 1.10 hurdle over the course of the past 24 hours. Richard Perry, an analyst at Hantec Markets takes a fresh look at the exchange rate and considers where it could move next.