Pound to New Zealand Dollar Forecast and Live Exchange Rate

Updated 9 October 2026

What's Driving GBP/NZD

By Gary Howes, Editor

• 🇳🇿 Pound Sterling Live forecasts GBP/NZD holding its breakout to the highest levels since 2015, with rising global bond yields keeping high-beta NZD on the back foot
• MUFG: high-beta currencies are more vulnerable while yields rise sharply, and the risk of more challenging market conditions over coming months leaves NZD likely to underperform
• NZD ended September as the worst performer in G10, a weakness ANZ attributes in part to higher US interest rates
• ASB: low outright yields and heightened geopolitical risks remain key NZD headwinds, with New Zealand's Official Cash Rate at 2.75%
• 📊 GBP/NZD broke above 2.3544, the ceiling that capped rallies in late 2025 and again in July 2026
• GBP/NZD's pullback tested the broken ceiling as support on 9 October and held, the pattern of a breakout being confirmed
• Rising 21-day moving average at 2.3449 is the next GBP/NZD support, with the 100-day at 2.3126 also climbing beneath it
• 🔭 Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for GBP/NZD's uptrend to extend from its multi-year breakout, with a daily close back below the old ceiling the signal it has failed
• RBNZ's September projections point to a pause on 28 October and a hike to 3.00% in December, and MUFG calls market pricing for a 4.00% OCR overdone
• Crédit Agricole: RBNZ is underestimating upside inflation risks and will be forced to re-accelerate rate hikes
• Westpac: hawkish RBNZ underpins NZD/USD forecasts of 0.61 in three months and 0.65 in 12 months, with September quarter CPI on 22 October the next test

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