Commerzbank Exchange Rate Forecast Update: Pound and Dollar to Underpeform while Euro Recovers

Pound Sterling has already seen its best days for the timebeing, Commerzbank says, because the British currency is set to spend the remainder of the year fixated on negotiations about the future UK-EU relationship and the still-present risk of something like a 'no deal' Brexit on January 01 2021.

The Dollar has defied earlier downbeat expectations in 2019 but is now set for a modest decline as investors chase resilient bond yields and faster economic growth outside of the so-called 'G3 economies, according to the latest forecasts from ING Group, which envision the Pound-to-Dollar rate hitting a post-referendum high next year.

Commerzbank has downgraded many of its exchange rate forecasts after most major currencies defied earlier projections as well as the market consensus during the first half of the year, leading the German lender to push back a still-anticipated trend change for the big Dollar. 

Pound Sterling could embark upon a gradual recovery from recent losses in the months and quarters ahead after 'King Dollar' is dethroned by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid an ongoing central bank race to the bottom of the interest rate ladder, according to the latest forecasts from Rabobank. 

The Pound is expected to lag many rivals in an anticipated riposte to a U.S. Dollar that has dominated the currency market for fifteen months now, according to the latest forecasts from TD Securities, while the Euro is still expected to climb gently into year-end and even the Antipodean currencies that were blighted most by the greenback last year are now seen having their moment in the sun.

The Pound is likely to remain depressed into year-end and beyond according to the latest exchange rate forecasts from Barclays, while both the Dollar and Euro are set to face trials and tribulations of their own before the curtain closes on 2019. 

The Pound is facing a protracted period of weakness into year-end as the risk of a general election and socialist government mounts, according to the latest forecasts from ING Group, while the Dollar is just months away from a turn lower that brings its 18-month rally to an end although the Euro is unlikley to benefit from this any time soon. 

Currency markets are still due a regime change in 2019 as the global economic league tables turn agains the U.S. economy, according to CIBC Capital Markets forecasts, but a resolution of the U.S.-China trade war will be necessary first.