Australian Dollar Enters Medium-term Downtrends vs. Pound & Euro says NAB Technical Forecaster

The Australian Dollar is threatening to enter a fresh technical medium-term downtrend against the British Pound, according to technical analysis conducted by NAB.

The Australian Dollar has lost 2.40% in value against the British pound over the course of the past month, with a notable amount of that loss coming over the course of the past 24 hours amidst improved sentiment towards Sterling regarding Brexit negotiations and softer global markets that are weighing on the Aussie.

 Australia’s Dollar rebounded from diminished levels Wednesday but is now lacking a crucial ingredient for ongoing outperformance after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) suggested it could look to reduce the country’s long-term bond yields in the months ahead, placing a question mark over the outlook. 

The Australian Dollar fell against the majority of its peers on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sent out more signals that it was looking to boost support for the economy by cutting rates and increasing its quantitative easing programme; a policy trajectory that is consistent with a weaker currency.

The British Pound is engaged in a short-term recovery sequence against the Australian Dollar that could run as high as 1.8453 according to some chart readings, should the market's current narrative on Brexit and Reserve Bank of Australia policy extend.

Australia's Dollar was in retreat Friday amid Chinese trade hostilities, soft global markets and expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut.

The Australian Dollar was sent lower in the wake of comments from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe that signalled further interest rate cuts and an expansion of the existing quantitative easing programme was coming.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate could recover briefly to levels not since this May in response to any Brexit trade agreement announced over the coming weeks, NAB forecasts suggest, although the bank has also warned that heavy losses could befall Sterling this week if the UK walks away from the negotiating table.