The Fed is set to hold but signal further hikes, keeping US yields bid and the pound capped against the dollar on Budget day.
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An AI boom turning to bust is now the biggest downside risk for the dollar in 2027, and it would reach the currency through lower Fed rate expectations.
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Pound sterling's recovery against the dollar risks stalling, and we're watching the UK Budget and the Federal Reserve decision this week for fresh signals.
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Mixed US megacap earnings have put the AI trade behind US exceptionalism under question, knocking the dollar lower and leaving the pound to test its 100-day average.
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The British pound looks set to extend its recovery against the dollar this week, though the dollar's medium-term strengths should cap it beyond that.
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A setback for the AI trade has pulled US yields and the dollar lower, with sterling's own outperformance lifting the pair through resistance.
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A broad-based upside surprise in core inflation pulls the Fed's next hike forward and knocks the pound back towards its 2026 lows.
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