The Canadian Dollar: Economic Contraction Beckons after Retail Sales Slump 

The Canadian Dollar gave up some of its earlier gains Wednesday after official data revealed a steep slump in retail spending during the Black Friday month of November, which implies and economic contraction for that month and adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting growth has decelerated more broadly of late.

The Canadian Dollar is set to rise against the U.S. Dollar, Euro and Pound this year, according to the latest forecasts from BMO Capital Markets, as oil prices stabilise and the Bank of Canada lifts its interest rate on three occassions. 

Our studies of USD/CAD suggest recent gains are unlikely to hold much longer and will probably eventually be undone by another wave of selling.

The Pound vs. Canadian Dollar is likely to trade familiar ranges on a technical basis but the ongoing trend in Brexit developments remains supportive of Sterling overall.

The Canadian Dollar spiked higher Friday after official data revealed a surprise pick up in inflation during December, only to hand back gains shortly after as it emerged methodology changes were behind the increase, leaving the Loonie subject to the whims of energy prices.

The Canadian Dollar will fall over the coming weeks according to analysts at CIBC Capital Markets, who have told clients they should sell the Loonie because it's New Year rally has now gone too far. 

Technically, GBP/CAD is back in the middle of its longer-term trading range between 1.66 and 1.75 and the outlook for the pair remains uncertain as there does not appear to be in any dominant overarching trend.

The Canadian Dollar ceded ground to rivals Wednesday after the Bank of Canada (BoC) confirmed that earlier guidance suggesting it would raise interest rates aggressively this year has effectively been thrown in the bin by policymakers during recent weeks.