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A survey of leading investment bank forecasts shows the Pound is expected to grind higher against the Dollar into 2027, but more than ten cents separates the most bullish and bearish views.
The newly released quarterly consensus forecast report, produced by Worldwide Currencies in association with Pound Sterling Live, reveals investment banks expect the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate to trend gradually higher through to early 2027.
The resulting mean and median forecasts serve as a rational anchor for future currency decisions, and the report can be requested from Worldwide Currencies here.
It is built on projections from eleven leading global financial institutions, including Barclays, Citigroup, JP Morgan, TD Securities and Wells Fargo.
The consensus points to a period of near-term consolidation before firmer gains emerge in the new year, although individual institutional forecasts remain unusually wide.
Indeed, more than ten cents separates the most bullish and most bearish calls for where Pound-Dollar ends 2026, one of the widest dispersions in the G10 forecast set.
A minority of institutions break from the consensus entirely and pencil in Pound-Dollar losses through the forecast horizon; the report shows which banks sit where.
The full report contains bank-by-bank point forecasts for each quarter, consensus highs and lows, visual trend analysis and coverage of six major currency pairs.
The path of Federal Reserve policy is central to the constructive consensus view, with markets currently pricing rate hikes that many institutions doubt will be delivered.
"Our house call is that the Fed will ride out the summer without touching rates and if that is the case, the dollar will need to come lower," says ING in a mid-year forecast update.
Any repricing of those Fed expectations would flatter the Pound-Dollar rate; a surprise hike would do the opposite, which is where the report's low-end scenarios become relevant.
Strategy implications
If the consensus is right, those converting Pounds into Dollars could be offered better rates later in the year and into 2027 than are available today.
However, the wide dispersion of forecasts warns against complacency, with the report's low-end projections mapping out scenarios in which waiting proves costly.
Those converting Dollars into Pounds face the opposite calculus and may wish to consider whether current levels represent an opportunity ahead of the anticipated Sterling appreciation.
The report sets out the consensus, the extremes and the quarter-by-quarter path, allowing readers to weigh the timing of upcoming transfers against the full range of institutional views.
Banks participating in the latest survey represent a cross-section of global financial institutions spanning Wall Street, Europe and Asia-Pacific.
Free Report · Worldwide Currencies
Where Next for the Pound? Get the Quarterly Forecast Report
Consensus exchange rate projections from eleven global banking partners, including Barclays, JP Morgan and Citigroup: point forecasts, highs and lows for each quarter through to early 2027.
Delivered by email. Produced by Worldwide Currencies; for information purposes only and not investment or financial advice.
