UK Manufacturing

The UK economy is likely to have stalled in the final quarter, according to the latest IHS Markit PMI surveys, which suggested both manufacturing and services industries shrank in December and have led some economists to warn the Bank of England (BoE) could soon cut interest rates if growth doesn't pick up.

The UK manufacturing sector saw its fourth consecutive month of contraction in August, according to IHS Markit, as the U.S.-China trade war and the ongoing Brexit saga both took their toll on industrial firms midway through what is a make-or-break quarter for the economy. 

The UK manufacturing sector rebounded from its winter lull in March after activity surged ahead of the UK's pending departure from the EU, leading economists to suggest the sector could make a larger contribution to first-quarter GDP growth than previously thought.

Brexit remains the central driver for Sterling at present, however, there is a sizeable chunk of data being released mid-morning which will give markets a decent steer as to how the economy was looking at the start of the new year.

The ONS will be reporting monthly GDP data today but we will also be watching releases of industrial and manufacturing production as well as latest trade statistics.

We have a slew of numbers out of the U.K. at 09:30 G.M.T. today that should tell us how the economy is looking heading into the final stage of the year.

The Pound erased earlier gains and slipped lower Tuesday after official data highlighted strong momentum in the economy during the summer months but revealed a slowdown in growth during August.

Pound Sterling eased lower Wednesday after July's IHS Markit manufacturing PMI left traders with little incentive to place big bets on the currency ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision due Thursday.

Heavy industry data for March showed further declines in the construction industry which are particularly concerning to economists

The Pound extended its slide lower Tuesday as markets responded to the latest IHS Markit manufacturing PMI, which appeared to suggest the recent economic slowdown may have extended into the second-quarter. 

The Pound pared back earlier gains during the morning session Wednesday after the latest round of industrial data from the Office for National Statistics showed output from Britain’s manufacturing and construction sectors surprising on the downside for the month of February.

Despite explosive gains for the Pound-Dollar rate, the trade weighted Sterling remains flat and manufacturing order books are still healthy. Economists say Britain's industrial boom can continue.

UK manufacturing output has grown 3% since the referendum when it should have grown by around 11%, according to Bank of America, who observe that links between UK and European industrial sectors are already weakening. 

Tuesday’s industrial data could make or break the economic narrative around Sterling ahead of November’s Bank of England monetary policy meeting

If economists are correct about July’s manufacturing performance, then the month will have saw the strongest pace of growth for the sector during the year to date.

The post-referendum weakness in the Pound has helped Manufacturer’s order books swell this summer, according to a recent report by the Consortium of British Industry (CBI).

The British Pound will be subject to the release of official trade and manufacturing data at 09:30 B.S.T.

The CBI reports that production among UK manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since January 1995 in the three months to July.

The disappointment on today's data releases is a massive one; of the scope that tends to move currency markets.

Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.