A National Party victory means a continuation of the status quo and, according to strategists, will remove the risk premium that has been built into NZ FX and fixed income of late.
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The most likely outcome of the election is a coalition between the largest party, the Nationals, NZF and ACT - and on the margin this would be the better outcome for the New Zealand Dollar.
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The Pound drove the GBP/NZD higher in the previous week, as there was little data to impact on the New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi), and several events which pushed up the Pound.
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Latest polls mark a continuation of a summer-long trend and raise the spectre of RBNZ reform and a host of other risks.
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There is little reason to question the uptrend in the Pound-to-New Zealand Dollar our mid-week technical studies suggest.
Read more … →Rising political risks have recently weighed on the New Zealand Dollar and some analysts see potential for further downside.
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The New Zealand Dollar has lost ground over recent sessions despite positive dairy price data, and this was probably as a result of the currency absorbing political risk.
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