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5-Day Pound-to-Euro Rate Forecast: Gains Could Extend, Central Banks in Focus Again

- Technical analysis shows potential for move towards 1.15

- Bank of England in focus for Sterling this week

- Mario Draghi's address in Sintra in focus for Euro

Outlook for the British Pound

Above: Mark Carney will be in focus as the Bank of England delivers its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday.

The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate starts the new week on a softer footing, being quoted at 1.1402 in mid-day trade on Monday, June 18 having been as high as 1.1456 earlier in the day.

The Pound rose 0.4% against the Euro last week after the European Central Bank used its latest monetary policy statement to quash market hopes of an initial Eurozone interest rate rise next June, sending the single currency reeling.

And, some technical strategists are telling us the move higher in the exchange rate could extend over the course of this week.

Concerning the technical outlook, "EUR/GBP failed to erode the 200 day moving average at 0.8824 and finally sold off. Directly above the 200 day moving average we have the 0.8846 7th May high and the 55 week moving average at 0.8859 and we will assume that we will need to regain this area for an upside bias to emerge," says Karen Jones, head of technical analysis at Commerzbank.

"However it is on the defensive and while below 0.8715 targets the 0.8697 end of May low and the 0.8620 April low," adds Jones.

Translated into GBP/EUR terms, Jones is suggesting the Pound would need to fall back below 1.1287 in order for a downward trend in the exchange rate to renew itself.

But the currency pair is on an offensive, which could see the Pound-to-Euro rate rising back above 1.1474 and toward 1.15 during the week ahead.

EUR GBP techs

Above: Commerzbank graph showing technical analysis of Euro-to-Pound rate.

Despite a soft start to the week, Sterling bulls will remain hopeful of further gains against the single-currency - the GBP/EUR exchange rate had traded in a sideways range for much of the previous week until Thursday when the ECB told markets that Eurozone interest rates will remain at their current record low levels until "at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary".

Markets had come to believe the central bank would not only end its quantitative easing programme over coming months, but that it would also look to raise interest rates around June 2019. The ECB's statement Thursday laid this idea to rest, sending the Euro-to-Dollar rate down by 300 points to 1.1550 and the Pound-to-Euro rate up to 1.1470, which is close to a one-month high.

The Euro's move lower on this basis could well play out further over coming days as is often the case following the release of key central bank messaging.

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Data and Events to Watch for the Pound this Week

The week ahead in the UK sees the economic data calendar fall quiet after an action-packed five day period that saw industrial production figures for April underwhelm the market, while unemployment data showed the labour market remaining in rude health in May and retail sales figures showed consumer spending coming back with a bang during the recent month.

The Bank of England interest rate decision for June is the sole event of importance in the calendar for Sterling, due at 12:00 pm Thursday, and markets are looking for the central bank to hold rates steady at their current 0.50% level. It isn't forecast to make changes to any other aspects of its monetary policy either, although markets will scrutinise the contents of the statement closely for clues as to how the Bank's views on the economy may have changed since its May meeting.

Economists and markets are currently looking to the August 02 monetary policy announcement for the next possible BoE rate hike. Pricing in interest rate derivatives markets implied an August 02 Bank Rate of 0.56% on Friday. If markets were really that confident about the BoE raising rates anytime soon then that implied rate would be somewhere closer to 0.75%.

Markets will also keep a close watch on the White House, China and European Union for signs of an escalation in the so called "trade war" after the US administration listed a large number of Chinese export goods that will be targeted by US tariffs over the coming days.

The move advances an earlier plan to pressure China into changing some of its trade practices and to voluntarily reduce its bilateral trade deficit with the US, but it also risks riling global financial markets if it looks at any point as if the two countries could be about to renew an earlier tit-for-tat tariff fight.

Tensions between the US and EU are also running high after President Trump slapped tariffs onto their steel and aluminium exports to the US.

 

Data and Events to Watch for the Euro this Week

The week ahead in Europe sees the economic data calendar return to life after a five day period where the European Central Bank meeting for June was the sole event of importance for Euro area economy-watchers.

Mario Draghi will speak at a central banking conference in Portugal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, at 18:30, 09:00 and 14:30 London time respectively, which will provide plenty of scope for the European Central Bank President to clarify or elaborate on last week's interest rate message.

Markets will listen closely to the speeches in case of any hints that interest rates may actually rise sooner or later than markets were led to expect last Thursday.

On Friday IHS Markit will release the latest preliminary readings of its purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the Eurozone manufacturing and services industries, which will be watched closely by the markets for clues about the current condition of the Eurozone economy.

Eurozone economic growth almost halved at the start of the year when first-quarter GDP rose by 0.4%, which is still a respectable figure, and the economy is yet to show signs of having rediscovered its mojo so far during the second quarter. Euro-bulls will be hoping it has because a recovery of growth momentum will be key to the ECB meeting its inflation target and, therefore, the central bank's ability to eventually raise its interest rate.

Markets will also keep a close watch on the White House, China and European Union for signs of an escalation in the so called "trade war" after the US administration listed a large number of Chinese export goods that will be targeted by US tariffs over the coming days.

The move advances an earlier plan to pressure China into changing some of its trade practices and to voluntarily reduce its bilateral trade deficit with the US, but it also risks riling global financial markets if it looks at any point as if thetwo countries could be about to renew an earlier tit-for-tat tariff fight. Tensions between the US and EU are also running high after President Trump slapped tariffs onto their steel and aluminium exports to the US.

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Get up to 5% more foreign exchange by using a specialist provider to get closer to the real market rate and avoid the gaping spreads charged by your bank when providing currency. Learn more here.
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