Pound to Euro Forecast and Live Exchange Rate
The pound to euro forecast from investment banks and market pricing, with the live GBP/EUR rate, charts and daily analysis
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Updated
What's Driving GBP/EUR
- 🇪🇺 Pound Sterling Live forecasts further GBP/EUR upside resting on the European Central Bank's dovish tilt, with UK fiscal risk into the 28 October Budget capping how far GBP can advance
- GBP/EUR rose in the week of 28 September after ECB President Christine Lagarde said the energy shock has yet to feed through to wages, pushing back against market enthusiasm for an October hike
- ING: if one central bank hikes in October it will be the Federal Reserve, not the ECB, with markets pricing 17bp of Fed tightening in October against 9bp from the ECB
- KBC: UK money markets attach a 90% probability to a Bank of England hike on 5 November, after Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said the case for higher rates builds if upside inflation pressures persist
- 📊 1.1689, the level that capped GBP/EUR gains earlier in September, is resistance, and a break above it needs the ECB repricing to extend
- 1.1615, the floor established after the Bank of England's September decision, is GBP/EUR's support beneath
- Spanish September inflation, due 29 September with consensus at 4.9%, would test Lagarde's view that price pressures are not becoming embedded, and GBP/EUR's hold on 1.1660, if it runs hot
- 🔭 Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for GBP/EUR to recover in the weeks after the Budget, on expectation Prime Minister Burnham avoids testing financial markets with large giveaways
- A broad euro selloff on strong US data would favour GBP/EUR, with US payrolls on 2 October the key test; ING sees scope for EUR/USD to test its 1.1320 to 1.1330 summer lows
- CIBC: speculators hold their largest net GBP short positions in almost three months, and 10-year gilt yields at a post-2007 high of 5.42% underline the lack of fiscal headroom ahead of the Budget
- Pantheon Macroeconomics: gilt spreads over peers could widen further if fiscal credibility deteriorates, with few signs the government will implement its planned consolidation
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| One Week | 1.1704 |
| One Month | 1.1694 |
| Three Months | 1.1666 |
| Six Months | 1.1625 |
| One Year | 1.1538 |
| Date | Open | Close | High | Low | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 1 Oct | 1.1707 | 1.1704 | 1.1711 | 1.1701 | 1.1706 |
Pound to Euro Forecast: 1.1666 in Three Months
These predictions are based on the forward points being traded in currency markets. These contracts are widely used by businesses, investors, and financial institutions for hedging or speculative purposes. The pricing of forwards provides valuable insights into market expectations for the future direction of currency pairs.
In one month the Pound-Euro exchange rate is forecast to be at 1.1694, according to market-implied pricing. In three months, the rate is expected to be at 1.1666. In six months the projected rate is at 1.1625. In one year the rate is expected to be at 1.1538.
Quarterly GBP/EUR targets from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, ING and more — updated weekly.
