Pound to Euro Forecast and Live Exchange Rate

Updated 9 November 2026

What's Driving GBP/EUR

By Gary Howes, Editor

• 🇪🇺 Pound Sterling Live forecasts GBP/EUR consolidating beneath 1.20 this week, with UK GDP the main test and French fiscal stress keeping any setback shallow
• GBP/EUR has tested 1.20 repeatedly since late October without a daily close above it, rising to 1.2015 on 5 November after the Bank of England's hike before falling back
• Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00% unanimously on 5 November, with Chief Economist Huw Pill saying a single 25bp hike is unlikely to be sufficient and markets pricing slightly better than even odds of a December move
• UK third-quarter GDP on 12 November, consensus 0.7%, is the main test, with Lloyds forecasting 0.8%, the strongest quarter since early 2022
• KBC: the Bank of England's backing serves as a strong GBP floor going forward
• French-German 10-year spread stood above 155bp on 4 November, against around 70bp at the end of 2025, with lawmakers voting on the 2027 budget on 17 November
• Crédit Agricole: the contrast between UK fiscal discipline and France's political and fiscal upheaval remains a key support for GBP against EUR
• ING: EUR/GBP trades 2.6% to 2.8% below short-term fair value, with a return to 0.8400 – 1.1905 in GBP/EUR – the most realistic move in coming weeks
• 📊 GBP/EUR's RSI at 75 has turned lower from the mid-80s, and the steeply rising 21-day at 1.1930 sits around 0.5% beneath the market, a gap sideways trade can close
• GBP/EUR is seen holding between 1.1930 and 1.20 this week, with a daily close above 1.20 opening 1.2016 and a close beneath the 21-day signalling a deeper consolidation
• 🔭 Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for GBP/EUR to settle into a higher range that incorporates 1.20, with its upper reaches in the mid-1.20s

For the latest analysis visit the GBP/EUR News Hub →