GBP/EUR Exchange Rate (Pound to Euro)

Updated 8 September 2026

What's Driving GBP/EUR

By Gary Howes, Editor

• 🇪🇺 Pound Sterling Live forecasts some relief for GBP/EUR in the week ahead, even if the broader trend stays heavy into the 28 October budget
• GBP/EUR opened the week of 8 September near 1.1657, back above the 1.1648 shelf after the 100-day moving average at 1.1626 held the prior week
• The 21-day moving average at 1.1675 is the next resistance, with 1.1750 beyond, and both cap a decline that has further to run
• A daily close beneath the 100-day at 1.1626 would end that reading and put 1.1600 in play
• Gilt yields, the cost of UK government borrowing, are at multi-decade highs, and Britain's high debt levels leave GBP exposed
• Barclays estimates rising gilt yields have cut the Chancellor's fiscal headroom from over £23bn in March to £10-15bn before the 28 October budget
• Brown Brothers Harriman expects the 75bp of Bank of England rises priced over the next twelve months to prove too aggressive, leaving GBP open to a dovish repricing
• The European Central Bank's 25bp rise to 2.50% on Thursday 10 September is 98% priced, so the euro takes direction from the guidance rather than the decision
• Pound Sterling Live expects any FX reaction to the ECB decision and guidance to be faded
• Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for the uptrend from November 2025's low to hold, meaning the current phase of weakness is still corrective and resolves in a resumption of the trend and fresh multi-year highs

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