Euro to Pound Forecast and Live Exchange Rate

Updated 29 September 2026

What's Driving EUR/GBP

By Gary Howes, Editor

• 🇬🇧 Pound Sterling Live forecasts EUR/GBP pressure as the European Central Bank signals patience while the Bank of England moves towards a November hike, with UK fiscal risk into the 28 October Budget limiting EUR/GBP's losses
• EUR/GBP fell in the week of 28 September after ECB President Christine Lagarde said the energy shock has yet to feed through to wages, pushing back against market enthusiasm for an October hike
• ING: markets price just 9bp of ECB tightening in October against 17bp from the Federal Reserve, and if one central bank hikes in October it will be the Fed
• KBC: UK money markets attach a 90% probability to a Bank of England hike on 5 November, after Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said the case for higher rates builds if upside inflation pressures persist
• 📊 0.8610, the EUR/GBP ceiling set after the Bank of England's September decision, is resistance, with Société Générale's 0.8635 confluence of a descending trend line and the 200-day moving average above it
• Société Générale: 0.8565 to 0.8550 is a crucial EUR/GBP support zone, the area where early-September lows formed, and a break beneath it needs the ECB repricing to extend
• Spanish September inflation, due 29 September with consensus at 4.9%, would support EUR/GBP if it runs hot, testing Lagarde's view that price pressures are not becoming embedded
• 🔭 Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for EUR/GBP to fall back in the weeks after the Budget, on expectation Prime Minister Burnham avoids testing financial markets with large giveaways
• A broad euro selloff on strong US data would weigh on EUR/GBP, with US payrolls on 2 October the key test; ING sees scope for EUR/USD to test its 1.1320 to 1.1330 summer lows
• CIBC: speculators hold their largest net GBP short positions in almost three months, and 10-year gilt yields at a post-2007 high of 5.42% underline the lack of fiscal headroom ahead of the Budget
• Pantheon Macroeconomics: gilt spreads over peers could widen further if fiscal credibility deteriorates, a risk that would lift EUR/GBP

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