Pound to Dollar Forecast: Expect Sub-1.25 Says Bank Analyst

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Pound Sterling will weaken against the Dollar to levels last seen in May, according to a new analysis.

Foreign exchange strategists at ING Bank say the Bank of England will cut interest rates in 2024 by a greater margin than markets are currently pricing, which will hit the Pound.

The main focus of Sterling weakness will be against the Dollar, as the Federal Reserve is in no position to match the Bank of England's interest rate cuts.

"We expect most of sterling’s weakness to be channelled via GBP/USD, which we expect to trade back under 1.25," says Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING Bank.

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These data are based on the spread surveyed in a recent survey conducted for Pound Sterling Live by The Money Cloud.

The Dollar has had a quiet week, but 'dovish' developments in Europe have helped it maintain the ascendency. It is up a third of a per cent against the Pound this week as it looks set to register its third consecutive weekly advance. It is registering a similar outperformance against the Euro.

"The US dollar looks set to finish the week higher, extending its winning streak to a third week. Whilst signs of a cooldown in inflationary pressures as well as the broader economy have bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may be able to deliver two rate cuts after all in 2024, with the first eyed in September, other central banks appear to be ahead in the race to ease policy," says Raffi Boyadjian, Lead Investment Analyst at XM.com.

The Pound fell after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday but issued a statement saying a number of members of the Monetary Policy Committee were close to voting for a cut.

This led markets to raise expectations for an August rate cut. ING says to expect three rate cuts in 2024 starting from August. This is more dovish than the two cuts priced in by the market.

Markets are currently pricing ~65% chance of a cut in August and see two 25bp cuts this year.

"Central banks in Europe are way ahead of the Federal Reserve with rate cuts, a dollar-positive development," says Pesole. "we doubt there is enough to take the dollar meaningfully lower at this stage."