Euro to US Dollar Forecast and Live Exchange Rate
The euro to us dollar forecast from investment banks and market pricing, with the live EUR/USD rate, charts and daily analysis
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Updated
What's Driving EUR/USD
- 🇺🇸 Pound Sterling Live forecasts EUR/USD staying under pressure as French bond stress erodes both supports that carried EUR through the first half of the year
- EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low on 5 October and slipped back beneath 1.12, the 2024 double top, on 7 October
- ING: EUR is hit directly by a fiscal risk premium, so far not extreme, and indirectly by lower ECB rate expectations
- ECB tightening priced by March has fallen to 45bp from 80bp on 24 September, taking the two-year EUR-USD swap rate differential to minus 167bp, ING says
- ING: before Liberation Day, a swap spread at current levels was consistent with EUR/USD closer to 1.08
- TD Securities: EUR's reaction to French concerns is tame against the last comparable OAT-Bund widening, leaving scope for near-term underperformance
- Marine Le Pen's counter-budget is the next test: a failed French budget raises the fiscal premium directly, while ECB support tools would suppress the rate expectations EUR trades on
- 📊 1.1160, the 5 October low, is the gateway to lower EUR/USD targets
- 🔭 Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for EUR/USD to extend towards 1.10 while French bond stress persists, with ING seeing scope to test 1.110 or even 1.100
- A daily close back above 1.1289 would argue the EUR/USD breakdown has failed
For the latest analysis visit the EUR/USD News Hub →
| One Week | 1.1161 |
| One Month | 1.1172 |
| Three Months | 1.1202 |
| Six Months | 1.1246 |
| One Year | 1.1337 |
| Date | Open | Close | High | Low | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct | 1.1158 | 1.1224 | 1.1241 | 1.1151 | 1.1191 |
| Wed 14 Oct | 1.1199 | 1.1158 | 1.1211 | 1.1113 | 1.1178 |
| Tue 13 Oct | 1.1155 | 1.1199 | 1.1205 | 1.1154 | 1.1177 |
| Mon 12 Oct | 1.1188 | 1.1156 | 1.1217 | 1.1153 | 1.1172 |
| Fri 9 Oct | 1.1211 | 1.1202 | 1.1243 | 1.1188 | 1.1207 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 1.1197 | 1.1211 | 1.1227 | 1.1172 | 1.1204 |
| Wed 7 Oct | 1.1260 | 1.1197 | 1.1263 | 1.1165 | 1.1228 |
| Tue 6 Oct | 1.1223 | 1.1260 | 1.1277 | 1.1203 | 1.1241 |
| Mon 5 Oct | 1.1257 | 1.1223 | 1.1261 | 1.1161 | 1.1240 |
| Fri 2 Oct | 1.1243 | 1.1253 | 1.1285 | 1.1221 | 1.1248 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 1.1330 | 1.1243 | 1.1337 | 1.1216 | 1.1286 |
Euro to US Dollar Forecast: 1.1202 in Three Months
These predictions are based on the forward points being traded in currency markets. These contracts are widely used by businesses, investors, and financial institutions for hedging or speculative purposes. The pricing of forwards provides valuable insights into market expectations for the future direction of currency pairs.
In one month the Euro-US Dollar exchange rate is forecast to be at 1.1172, according to market-implied pricing. In three months, the rate is expected to be at 1.1202. In six months the projected rate is at 1.1246. In one year the rate is expected to be at 1.1337.
Quarterly EUR/USD targets from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, ING and more — updated weekly.
