Pound to US Dollar Forecast and Live Exchange Rate
The pound to us dollar forecast from investment banks and market pricing, with the live GBP/USD rate, charts and daily analysis
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Updated
What's Driving GBP/USD
- 🇺🇸 Pound Sterling Live forecasts a brief GBP/USD bounce in the week of 21 September before the post-August decline resumes
- GBP/USD opened the week of 21 September carrying losses that followed the Federal Reserve's 16 September hike and the Bank of England's hold a day later
- GBP/USD's gap beneath its 21-day moving average, opened over the Fed week, looks too wide to last and favours a shallow mean-reverting rebound
- Any bounce is expected to run out beneath the 21-day, with the decline resuming later in the week
- A daily close back above 1.3506, resistance broken in mid-August and since lost, would challenge the bearish view
- Pound Sterling Live's medium-term forecast is for the post-August decline to extend towards 1.3140, the floor of the range that has contained GBP/USD over the past year
- The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, its first rise since 2023, in a unanimous vote
- Money markets assign just over 50% probability to a further Fed hike in October, shortly before the 3 November midterm elections
- Sanjay Raja at Deutsche Bank: speeches from MPC members Swati Dhingra, Sarah Breeden and Clare Lombardelli this week matter mainly for how convinced the committee is of a November hike
- Rob Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics: two 25bp Bank Rate hikes expected, in November and February 2027
- Presidents Trump and Xi meet in Washington on Thursday 24 September, and a trade agreement that lifts global risk appetite would trim USD's safe-haven support
For the latest analysis visit the GBP/USD News Hub →
| One Week | 1.3229 |
| One Month | 1.323 |
| Three Months | 1.3232 |
| Six Months | 1.3234 |
| One Year | 1.3233 |
| Date | Open | Close | High | Low | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | 1.3229 | 1.3233 | 1.3250 | 1.3206 | 1.3231 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 1.3213 | 1.3229 | 1.3248 | 1.3185 | 1.3221 |
| Wed 7 Oct | 1.3275 | 1.3213 | 1.3276 | 1.3194 | 1.3244 |
| Tue 6 Oct | 1.3223 | 1.3275 | 1.3285 | 1.3202 | 1.3249 |
| Mon 5 Oct | 1.3244 | 1.3223 | 1.3250 | 1.3191 | 1.3233 |
| Fri 2 Oct | 1.3196 | 1.3241 | 1.3256 | 1.3182 | 1.3218 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 1.3264 | 1.3196 | 1.3273 | 1.3181 | 1.3230 |
Pound to US Dollar Forecast: 1.3232 in Three Months
These predictions are based on the forward points being traded in currency markets. These contracts are widely used by businesses, investors, and financial institutions for hedging or speculative purposes. The pricing of forwards provides valuable insights into market expectations for the future direction of currency pairs.
In one month the Pound-US Dollar exchange rate is forecast to be at 1.3230, according to market-implied pricing. In three months, the rate is expected to be at 1.3232. In six months the projected rate is at 1.3234. In one year the rate is expected to be at 1.3233.
Quarterly GBP/USD targets from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, ING and more — updated weekly.
