Workers in Canada

Image ยฉ Adobe Images


Sterling's steady October gains against the Canadian dollar show no sign of overextension after weak Canadian jobs data.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate carries a constructive outlook into the new week.

The pair is at 1.8873.

The steady pace of October's rally is encouraging, with a comfortably positive RSI at 58 and no sign of the overextension visible in other pairs.

The 21-day moving average at 1.8776 is rising beneath spot.


GBP/CAD daily chart with 21-day moving average and RSI

Above: GBP/CAD at daily intervals with the 21-day moving average and the RSI in the lower panel.


Canadian Jobs Data Weighs

Canada's September labour market data supports the move, with employment falling by 68,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 6.5%, says Statistics Canada.

The data was the last labour market reading before the Bank of Canada's 28 October decision.

Rabobank says markets have priced too much tightening from the Bank of Canada.

"Markets price almost four additional Bank of Canada hikes by September 2027, but we expect the BoC to remain at 2.25% this year and for the Fed to deliver only one more hike, widening the US-Canada rate differential to 200bp by year-end," says Rabobank.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Bank of Canada to start raising rates in December.

A weak jobs report makes that harder to justify and keeps the Canadian dollar on the back foot against a pound backed by November hike expectations.

Last week's peak at 1.8925 is the obvious upside target this week, ahead of 1.90, the November target for the recovery's extension.