Euro-to-Dollar Rate Vaults into Holiday Weekend as Eurogroup Talks Bailout for Virus-hit Economies

The Euro-to-Dollar rate was lifted into the holiday weekend on Thursday by a broad downturn in the greenback and mounting hopes that Eurozone finance minister will put differences aside and agree on a mechanism for providing financial life support to members who've been hit hardest by the coronavirus. 

The Euro-to-Dollar rate recovery off last week's lows was called to a halt Wednesday by bad politics at the Eurozone finance minister table, which are stoking existential risks to a single currency that is currently attempting neutralise bearish signals coming off the charts. 

The Euro unwound almost all of its late March rebound against the Dollar last week and the charts are warning of more losses ahead, although weekend confirmation of a broad slowdown in the continental spread of coronavirus could lift risk appetite over the coming days and possibly the Euro-to-Dollar rate too. 

The Euro-to-Dollar rate is tipped for consolidation around its 200-day moving average after carving out what might be a new and narrow range which could dominate trading in the exchange rate as investors await a catalyst for the next big move to the up or downside. 

The Euro-to-Dollar rate closed out its best week for more than a decade Friday after a broad decline in the greenback gave other currencies breathing room, although whether the recovery can be sustained over the coming days will depend largely upon investor appetites for risk and the Dollar. 

The Euro was a straggler on Friday but could face much more downside in the months ahead, according to downgraded forecasts from BofA Global Research, which are pointing to levels near parity by mid-year just as familiar self-interests sabotage the European response to the coronavirus crisis. 

The Euro was steady on Wednesday as the Dollar remained subdued amid a large and coordinated U.S. effort to mitigate the economic threat posed by coronavirus although a European fiscal response was also shaping up mid-week and might soon sow the seeds of a longer-term Euro-to-Dollar rate recovery.

The Euro-to-Dollar rate outlook may have brightened now the Federal Reserve (Fed) is leaning against the greenback and German politicians are talking of post-coronavirus stimulus, which comes just as the virus appears to be losing momentum in Europe.