Euro-Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Vulnerable as ECB, Virus and U.S. Election Debate Dominate 

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate closed its worst week since April on Friday but risks being carried lower still as the first U.S. election debate, a resurgent coronavirus and series of European Central Bank (ECB) speeches test investors’ confidence in earlier wagers on the single currency 

The Euro retreated further from a resurgent Dollar on Thursday after the influential Ifo index missed expectations and is once again the subject of bearish wagers after topping out at more-than two year highs in early September and breaking beneath an important technical support level. 

Foreign exchange strategists at Credit Suisse have retreated from pursuing a higher Euro against the Dollar, saying an ongoing pullback in the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has further to run.

The Euro-to-Dollar rate was at risk of further losses on Wednesday after IHS Markit PMI surveys surprised on the downside for September and as some analysts cashed out of earlier bullish wagers on the single currency. 

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate stalled last week but could be at risk of a turn lower in the coming days as political risks rise from all directions and as a second wave of coronavirus infections brings renewed ‘lockdown’ and an upending of the economic recovery a step closer. 

The Euro-Dollar rate set a new September low Thursday amid a tentative rebound in the greenback but some analysts say that with the perceived probability of a ‘no deal’ Brexit having reached new highs, the single currency has further to fall in the coming weeks as the favourable transatlantic growth outlook is challenged. 

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate edged higher on Wednesday and is likely to advance further in the months ahead, according to analysts at Westpac, who say the single currency is “not overvalued” yet and that European Central Bank (ECB) concerns about recent gains might be misplaced. 

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate appeared to be swimming against a tide Tuesday as momentum ebbed from the market even after a the September ZEW survey, a widely observed barometer of sentiment on the Eurozone economy, surprised sharply on the upside.