Euro-Dollar "Looks Vulnerable"
- Written by: Gary Howes
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"At the moment, the euro looks vulnerable," says analyst Kit Juckes at Société Générale.
His observation is made in a daily client briefing, where he explains that EUR/USD is at the lower end of the range it has been stuck in since mid-2025.
"It hasn’t broken back below 1.15 yet. Were it to do so, we would expect the mood in the FX market to change significantly and we do think that will happen in due course," he says.
Euro-dollar rose to 1.18 in early December but has since steadily declined.
The trend lower is relatively clean, with the pair respecting the descending nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart.
With rallies failing to break above this line, the direction of travel is pointed lower and it's hard not to notice the looming 200-day EMA which is conveniently located at 1.15.
That level forms a potential big test and could arrest the decline. If everyone else in the market thinks so, then we can expect some buying orders to emerge in the vicinity of this big round number.
