The UK has the wrong split of growth and too much inflation to sustain a normal hiking cycle. Brexit risks are also a threat to Sterling but directional calls are best avoided for the time being. …
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Politics takes centre stage over the next five days, with key events including the evolving Brexit story and Catalan elections in the Eurozone. Charts continue to show a bias to the upside.
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A transition deal means a slower journey to a bad destination so if an agreement is struck in the new year, it will be unlikely to boost the economy’s performance.
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Political risks becomes more balanced in 2018 while the Bank of England's northward march could provide the Pound with an edge over its continental neighbour.
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The European central bank kept monetary policy unchanged but substantially revised up economic growth projections at its policy meeting on Thursday.
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Retail sales surged in November. Focus: "Sufficient Progress", Bank of England and traders’ reactions to the “amendment 7” defeat of the government in parliament.
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Economic data dominates the agenda for Sterling over Wednesday and Thursday while the European Council decision is the main event for Friday.
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