The GBP/USD Outlook According to Tech Specialists at Citi, Soc Gen, Lloyds, CIBC and UOB
The pound sterling is seen enjoying notable strength against the US dollar with analysts telling us further advances remain possible going forward.
The British pound has risen alongside 'risk-on' assets over the course of this week ensuring the recovery from lows towards 1.40 seen at the start of the month are left behind.
Indeed, the pound currently tends to profit when stock markets are rising, so for us keeping a handle on how markets are performing will be key moving through the remainder of April.
At the time of writing the conversion is quoted as being higher on a day-to-day comparison at 1.4393.
We explore the key levels that the sterling-dollar exchange rate faces over coming days and weeks with a view to exploring where the current recovery could fail, which most in the market believe will ultimately happen.
This will allow those with currency payments to better understand what is and what is not an achievable target rate.
Latest Pound / US Dollar Exchange Rates
  | Live: 1.3347▲ + 0.15%12 Month Best:1.3789 |
*Your Bank's Retail Rate
| 1.2893 - 1.2946 |
**Independent Specialist | 1.316 - 1.3213 Find out why this is a better rate |
* Bank rates according to latest IMTI data.
** RationalFX dealing desk quotation.
Forecasts for the Pound Sterling Against the Dollar
Citibank:
"As with EUR, the current short positioning in sterling could potentially see GBPUSD stage a further
corrective move towards 1.4515 pivot though Brexit concerns make it unlikely the unit will break above
that level.
"And the preference remains to sell into strength around 1.4320/50."
Robin Wilkin at Lloyds Commercial:
“We remain trapped in well-defined ranges. Other than a brief move to 1.3835 in late February, the 1.4050-1.3980 area has been providing support.”
“Intra-day, while 1.4250/55 resistance caps we see risks of a move down to test support.
“A move back through 1.4255 would negate opening a re-test of the range highs at 1.4370, 1.4450 and 1.45.
“Medium term, we expect the market to continue to trade a range between 1.3850-1.35 support and 1.45-1.48 resistance.
“Should we see a breakdown through 1.35, then we have little in the way till meaningful support in the 1.2800 region.
Stéphanie Aymes at Societe Generale:
“GBP/USD has breached a multiyear upward channel support (1.46) and looks headed towards graphical levels at 1.36/1.35 (lows of 1986, 2001, 2009).
“Long dated indicators are close to hitting a floor pointing towards the possibility of consolidation once these levels are achieved.”
1.46/1.4750 should cap short term rebound.
Quek Ser Leang at UOB in Singapore:
“While the undertone for GBP is positive, the current price action suggests that this pair is still caught in a broad consolidation range.
“From here, a retest of last Friday’s high near 1.4240/45 would not be surprising but a sustained move above this level is unlikely (next resistance is at 1.4300).”
Support is at 1.4130 followed by last week’s low of 1.4090.
Over the one to three week timeframe we are advised that the outlook is still neutral and we continue to expect this pair to trade in a broad 1.4000/1.4350 range for now.
