Frexit Would

Frexit Would "Go Beyond a Lehman Moment" - Deutsche Bank


The apparent ease with which the UK economy has weathered Brexit (so far) has set up a misleading precedent for French voters who may be thinking that a Frexit would carry similar minor risks, says Deutsche Bank’s Macro Strategist Alan…

Euro

Pound to Euro Latest

1.1823▼

-0.33%

Previous Close:

1.1862

Today's High:

1.1872

Today's Low:

1.1807

US Dollar

Pound to US Dollar Latest

1.2511▼

-0.35%

Previous Close:

1.2554

Today's High:

1.257

Today's Low:

1.2498

Australian Dollar

Pound to Australian Dollar Latest

1.6301▲

0.19%

Previous Close:

1.6269

Today's High:

1.636

Today's Low:

1.6245

New Zealand Dollar

Pound to New Zealand Dollar Latest

1.7366▲

0.04%

Previous Close:

1.7359

Today's High:

1.7434

Today's Low:

1.7319

South African Rand

Pound to South African Rand Latest

16.2325▲

0.54%

Previous Close:

16.1452

Today's High:

16.2945

Today's Low:

16.1288

Canadian Dollar

Pound to Canadian Dollar Latest

1.638▼

-0.42%

Previous Close:

1.6449

Today's High:

1.647

Today's Low:

1.6374

Forecast for British pound to euro exchange rate from Bank of America favours GBP into 2014

Update: Nomura offer aggressive pro-GBP forecast.

Following on from yesterday's Bank of England Inflation Report we note the British pound to euro exchange rate remains on the front foot and is maintaining a rate north of 1.19.

Please keep in mind all quotations here are inter-bank spot rates. Your retail rate will be delivered with a spread being subtracted by your bank at their discretion. This is a competitive market though and the good news is that an independent FX provider will seek to beat your bank's rate, thus delivering up to 5% more FX. Please learn more here.

There was a slip-up following on from today's release of retail sales data at the ONS, however the recovery confirms markets are more comfortable holding GBP at this stage.

The pro-GBP theme is furthered by Bank of America Merrill Lynch who have confirmed to clients that they see further pound euro exchange rate gains as we move into 2014.

According to analyst Nick Bate economic data will remain the key driver for sterling.

But, further positive data surprises will be needed to match the Bank's growth forecasts and at the same time support sterling.

In addition, "the evolution of the labor market will be important in assessing the level of slack in the economy. The BoE revised labor market forecasts despite a relatively benign change in inflation and growth expectations - suggesting a small structural shift in their view of spare capacity," says Bate.

A further improvement would lower capacity expectations (today's data has already pushed in that direction) and would support sterling.

"We remain bearish EUR/GBP, targeting £0.80 by next year. A close to trend UK economy with an improving labor market alongside disinflationary forces in the EZ keeping a dovish ECB should help to drive EUR/GBP lower," says Bate.

Turning the equation around to GBP/EUR this translates into 1.25 by next year.

The forecast echoes similar predictions issued by BK Asset Management, FXWW and Lloyds Bank which all have GBP/EUR pegged above 1.2 going forward.

 

Keep an eye on the UK's pay packet


The October Bank of England Inflation Report could well prove to be a watermark for sterling.

We heard how the unemployment rate could drop to the 7% threshold set in the forward guidance framework as early as next year.

However, this may still not trigger a pro-sterling interest rate rise. Governor Carney says he wants to see slack in the economy pick up before such an event.

This has seen commentators, and markets, start to focus on growth in wages as wage growth is seen as an indicator slack in the economy is being picked up.

Commenting on the matter Bate says:

"We were struck by several references to real wages during the Q&A (for example, the Governor saying that while stronger consumption has thus far been supported by declining savings, "in order for that to be sustained there has to be a rise in real wages").

"While not a formal part of the guidance framework the market would be well advised to keep a close eye on them, as they could be a very important factor in influencing expectations when unemployment drops close to 7.0%, of whether or not the MPC may then be prepared to sanction and signal modest monetary tightening, or might consider lowering the threshold, prolonging guidance and keeping Bank Rate at its current level for longer."

Also noting the importance of real wages is Stephen Gallo at BMO Capital Markets:

"Even if the unemployment rate falls further at a rather quick pace, our view is that the GBP leg of any GBPUSD strength will experience diminishing marginal returns from here, relative to the aforementioned pace of GBP strength during Q3.  

"All things being equal, as long as nominal wage growth remains very subdued, as it has done, continued downplaying of the fall in unemployment by the BoE will eventually for FX become an implicit pushing back of the first rate hike.  Seeing is believing."

Latest British Pound News

GBP LIVE TODAY

Retailers Say Sales Up But Rising Inflation Makes For Gloomy Future

23 February, 2017 |

A survey of British retailers showed a rise in receipts in February despite increasing cost pressures and an overall pessimistic outlook for the future.

GBP LIVE TODAY

The Pound “Reverts to Mean” as Optical Illusion in GDP Data Catches Traders Out

23 February, 2017 |

Foreign exchange traders may have unnecessarily punished the Pound in the wake of the release of Wednesday’s GDP release and it must therefore recover back to higher levels against the Dollar and Euro we are told.

GBP LIVE TODAY

British Pound 'Substantially Undervalued' but Must Still Go Lower say SEB

22 February, 2017 |

Analysts at a leading financial services house have confirmed Pound Sterling to be one of the world’s most undervalued currencies at present.

GBP LIVE TODAY

Carney & Co Retain a Cautious Optimism Before Treasury Select Committee

21 February, 2017 |

The Treasury Committee hears from Governor and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, and External Members of the Monetary Policy Committee on its Inflation Report for February.

GBP/EUR: News and Forecasts

EUR

Pound to Euro Rate: “Grinding Trend Higher Intact”

24 February, 2017 |

Pound Sterling has edged off recent two-month highs against the Euro ahead of the weekend being quoted at 1.1849 at the time of writing.

EUR

Frexit Would "Go Beyond a Lehman Moment" - Deutsche Bank

23 February, 2017 |

The apparent ease with which the UK economy has weathered Brexit (so far) has set up a misleading precedent for French voters who may be thinking that a Frexit would carry similar minor risks, says Deutsche Bank’s Macro Strategist Alan Ruskin.

EUR

Pound to Euro Rate in U-Turn at Key Tech Barrier

22 February, 2017 |

The GBP/EUR exchange rate's recent rally has failed at a key technical resistance level and the prospect for a deeper pullback now looks possible.

EUR

Frexit Risks Help Pound to Euro Exchange Rate to Fresh Two-Month High

21 February, 2017 |

 French Bonds and the Euro are selling off on investor concerns that Marine Le Pen might win the French Presidency.

GBP/USD: News and Forecasts

USD

Markets take a Shine to Pound Sterling as Sentiment Measures Improve

23 February, 2017 |

Analysts at Lloyds Bank’s Commercial Banking devision have told clients they believe investors are starting to shift opinion on the Pound.

USD

Pound up on Dollar as US Economic Stats Disappoint, Fed Minutes Ahead

21 February, 2017 |

The US Dollar has given back some of the gains it enjoyed earlier in the day after two noted data releases came in below expectation.

USD

Pound to Dollar Rate: Get Ready, a Break Out is On the Cards!

21 February, 2017 |

“While prices remain trapped in their current range, we are getting to a window of opportunity for a breakout to develop, so we are watching price action closely today," says Lloyd’s Bank’s Robin Wilkins.

USD

6% US Dollar Upside Forecast by Citi

20 February, 2017 |

The currency markets remain without direction and there is little by way of trends to be found in the short-term.

EUR/USD: News and Forecasts

Euro to Dollar

Meat of Dollar Rally is Behind Us - EUR/USD to Rise Says Abn Amro

24 February, 2017 |

Further upside gains for the Dollar may be hard won, says Abn Amro’s FX strategist Georgette Boele.

Euro to Dollar

Euro / Dollar Exchange Rate to go Sub 1.0 in 2017

24 February, 2017 |

Growing support in polls for French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has exerted strong downside pressure on the euro in February.

Euro to Dollar

Macron / Bayrou Hook-up Triggers Euro U-Turn but Risks Still Point to Lower Exchange Rates

23 February, 2017 |

Having suffered a poor start to the week against the Pound Sterling, US Dollar and other global currencies we have since witnessed a stabilising in the Euro on the latest shift in the volatile race for the French presidency.

Euro to Dollar

Euro / Dollar Rate 5-Day Forecast has 1.0490 Lined Up

19 February, 2017 |

EUR/USD surged unexpectedly higher on Thursday, reaching highs of 1.07 but then gave back most of its gains on Friday as it moved back down to the lower 1.06s .

GBP/AUD: News and Forecasts

AUD

Australian Dollar to Remain 'on Top' say Westpac

24 February, 2017 |

The Aussie Dollar is the strongest currency in the G10 having risen an average of 6.7% versus its counterparts in 2017.

AUD

Australian Dollar at Risk as Storm Clouds Gather Over China

20 February, 2017 |

 The global reflation story which has powered equity markets higher, driven Commodity prices up and led to a resurgence in risk appetite may soon reach a climactic end, and this could be a negative for the Australian Dollar.

AUD

UK Pound / Australian Dollar Forecast for the Coming Week: Emerging Triangle Pattern Sugge…

19 February, 2017 |

 GBP/AUD may be forming a triangle pattern as price action consolidates in between two narrowing lines.

AUD

Australian Dollar can Advance Even Further as the 'Carry Trade' is Back in Favour

17 February, 2017 |

The Australian Dollar is the year’s best performing major currency having advanced by 6.10% against the US Dollar.

GBP/NZD: News and Forecasts

NZD

New Zealand Dollar Falters after Dairy Prices Fall at Auction

21 February, 2017 |

 The New Zealand Dollar moved slightly lower versus the Dollar and the Pound after the release of Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Prices on Tuesday. GDT prices are fixed at a bi-weekly global auction of a variety of Dairy products, the largest of which is dried whole milk.

NZD

Pound to New Zealand Dollar: Tech Forecast for the Week Ahead, Can the Uptrend Restart?

19 February, 2017 |

As we enter the new week, the GBP/NZD continues snaking sideways below the 50-day moving average which must be overcome if we are to see the early-February recovery extend.

NZD

New Zealand Dollar Dips as Shoppers Show Considerable Restraint

17 February, 2017 |

The New Zealand Dollar dipped on Friday after data released overnight showed a slight slowdown in shop sales in the fourth quarter of 2016.

NZD

GBP/NZD Tipped to Edge Lower According to Mid-February Technical Analysis

15 February, 2017 |

GBP/NZD is stuck in a range between 1.68 and 1.75.

GBP/CAD: News and Forecasts

CAD

Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges on Trump’s Border Tax: Points to Consider for Investors

23 February, 2017 |

  A major contributing factor to the outlook for the Canadian Dollar (Loonie) is the realisation of Donald Trump’s plans for Border Adjusted Tax policy or BAT for short.  

CAD

UK Pound to Canadian Dollar Rate: Tech Forecast Eyes Potential Breakout Higher

19 February, 2017 |

The GBP/CAD pair continues to move sideways under a trendline in the 1.65s forming a bull flag pattern in the process which is likely to breakout higher and rise roughly the same distance as the length of the ‘pole’.

CAD

Pound to Canadian Dollar Poised for Gains as Bull Flag Pattern Forms

16 February, 2017 |

 The pair has been pushing up against the trendline in the 1.65s and although it has been repulsed following successive attempts to break above, we still see a slight bias towards more upside and therefore an eventual break higher emerging.

CAD

UK Pound to Canadian Dollar Rate: Forecast and Data For the Next Five Days

12 February, 2017 |

GBP/CAD continues to move up and down in a sideways range after an initial bullish rally from off of the mid-January lows.

GBP/ZAR: News and Forecasts

ZAR

Bruised Pound / Rand Exchange Rate Could Slip to Fresh Multi-Year Lows, but Politics Remai…

20 February, 2017 |

A triangle pattern has formed on GBP/ZAR with bearish connotations.

ZAR

Rand hits Multi-Year Best Against Pound as Carry Trade Returns with a Vengeance

16 February, 2017 |

The Pound to Rand exchange rate has this week fallen to its lowest levels since October 2013 when it recorded a conversion of 16.0685 in mid-week trade.

ZAR

Pound / Rand Exchange Rate Tipped for a Ride Higher Following Significant Break Above Tren…

13 February, 2017 |

The GBP/ZAR pair has broken above a key multi-month trendline signalling the balance of probabilities now favour more upside, with 17.50 providing an initial target but the potential for much higher rates thereafter, in the medium term.

ZAR

South African Rand: Still below Fair-Value, Should Rise in 2017

06 February, 2017 |

 The outlook for the South African Rand has undergone something of a transformation according to a recent note by Deutsche Bank’s Gautam Kalani.