A new currency forecast for 2015 / 2016 from Barclays suggests that the euro exchange rate complex will continue to under-perform and EUR-USD will ultimately be driven below parity.
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Markets have become increasingly more positive to the euro turning near- to medium-term analysts forecasts to price in yet further gains.
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The euro exchange rate complex has been boosted by rising yields on German government bonds or Bunds which helped narrow the advantage of comparable US and UK yields.
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With the all-powerful dollar rally stalling, speculators will be questioning whether there is any further profit to be had in betting the euro will continue to climb higher against the dollar.
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Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research have given advance warning that the downtrend in the euro dollar exchange rate is about to resume.
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The outlook for the euro has improved somewhat with regards to the Greek debt crisis, however the shared currency’s strength remains vulnerable on a technical basis.
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Those expecting the current cycle of euro weakness to push the EUR/USD rate below 1:1 could be wrong.
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