Euro Exchange Rate: EURGBP, EURAUD and EURUSD Forecasts

Selected euro forecasts and viewpoints regarding trade against the dollar, British pound and Australian dollar.

Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate: Up for the Euro

No surprises when we point out that the technical outlook rests on the ability of the long-term support line at 1.10 to hold.  

If the EUR to USD does fall below here then expect the negative bias to grow in strength.

"For now the long-term trends remain up for the Euro and down for the dollar index, but this could change soon. When it does, we will likely see some large moves in the currency markets, which for the most part, have spent much of this year consolidating," says Phil Seaton at LS Trader.

Such breakouts should also give rise to large moves in other markets that are impacted by the dollar, namely commodities.

Something that could spark such a break-out is the release of US employment data on Friday will be central to the outlook.  

Markets are looking for non-farm payroll data to read at 182K, moves higher or lower will be determined on how this expectations is met.

A strong data read could all but cement the Fed's stance on a potential December interest rate rise which is exactly what the USD bulls are looking for.

Euro to Pound Exchange Rate: Downside Momentum Waning?

The euro is in retreat against sterling having edged to its lowest levels since August on the back of some blow-out UK manufacturing data.

The data has reinforced technical trend momentum indicators which suggests further downside in the conversion is possible from here.

We would caution that the move lower appears overdone at the start of November with the RSI reading at 30, any reading at 30 and below signals an oversold product.

Consolidation could well be a feature over coming days if the EUR to GBP conversion is to obey the RSI.

“Selling has lately been losing some momentum and falling wedge formation (a common terminating pattern) seems to be under creation. As such we should keep our eyes open for bullish signs and a potential correction back towards the 0.7250 area (where offers likely will be found),” says Anders Soderberg at S.E.B, the Swedish bank.

Latest Pound/Euro Exchange Rates

	Live: 1.1455▲ + 0.1% 12 Month Best: 1.2162
*Your Bank's Retail Rate	1.1066 - 1.1111
**Independent Specialist	1.1295 - 1.134 Find out why this is a better rate

* Bank rates according to latest IMTI data.

** RationalFX dealing desk quotation.

 

Technically we see the RSI as being the harbringer of consolidation, but fundamentally we would point to the Bank of England's Super Thursday as being the driver.

This is a big highlight for the sterling calendar and markets want some concrete news on interest rate strategy from the Bank. Either way, exposure to the pound will be pared back ahead of the event ensuring any dips in sterling remain shallow and rallies will prove temporary.

Euro to Australian Dollar: Barclays Say Sell EURAUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivers their decision on interest rates on the 3rd of November, the decision is finely balanced with a 45% possibility of a rate cut. Such a move would push the Aussie dollar lower.

However, strategists at Barclays suggest that when all is considered the EUR to AUD conversion should decline.

Barclays recommend a tactical short EURAUD trade going into the RBA meeting. Market pricing of the probability of a 25bp rate cut now stands near 45%. If the RBA holds rates, analysts think the AUD is likely to have a brief bounce.

“Technicals are bearish for EURAUD in the near term. Support erosion signals further downside and we would prefer to use upticks as an opportunity to sell at better levels,” say Barclays, “a move nearby targets at the 1.5165 range lows would encourage our downside conviction.”