Aus Dollar Forecast 2015: AUD Could Fall as pro-USD Sentiment Grow

"With the unemployment rate exceeding that of the US for the first time since 2007 it is unsurprising that we have seen added volatility across Australian dollar markets," says Kamil Amin at Caxton FX.

This view on the AUD is being repeated by other analysts and indeed we see an increasingly negative stance on the currency ensuring forecasts for 2015 are placed below current levels.

For your reference, at the time of writing the following AUD dollar levels are on offer:

• The GBP to AUD rate is 0.23 pct lower at 1.7901. See why the pound sterling has been boosted at the start of the new week.
• The EUR to AUD rate is 0.18 pct lower at 1.4307.
• The AUD to USD rate is 0.09 pct higher at 0.9333.

Please Note: All quotes here are taken from the wholesale markets. Your bank will affix a spread at their own discretion. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering up to 5% more FX. Please learn more.

Forecasting a lower Aussie Dollar as US Fed Starts Getting Active

The AUD continues to see any bouts of strength proving short-lived in nature, indeed many traders are expressing the desire to sell the AUD rallies in anticipation of deeper declines.

"This view is not driven by an expectations of the RBA lowering the cash rate, or even the stodgy fundamental that lower export prices leads to a lower currency, but merely because we expect the markets to raise the odds that the Fed will hike by mid-next year, strengthening the USD," says Prashant Newnaha at TD Securities.

Newnaha notes that it was year ago now when the so-called “taper tantrum” was in full flight, net positioning was –60k or so contracts (August 2013) as investors piled into the USD.

"While this dramatic positioning may not be replicated by year end/early 2015, even a fraction of this shift in positioning can be expected to weigh heavily on the AUD and is behind our year-end target of $US0.90, independent of whether the RBA is dovish or not," says Newnaha.

Looking ahead, if futures and options positioning turn bearish, then there will only be downside risks for the AUD
without the RBA having to do or say anything suggests the analyst.

The Aus to US dollar exchange rate forecast for the final quarter of 2014 is currently pencilled in at 0.90 by TD Securities.

Q1 2015 is forecast to see the AUD/USD at 0.88. While mid-2015 will see the rate at 0.85.

What just happened to the Aussie dollar?

The Aussie dollar clung to one-week peaks against the greenback and was on course for a winning week, buoyed by reduced tensions in Ukraine and a move lower in U.S. Treasury yields.

"News on the home front was also supportive of the Aussie as confidence among the nation’s consumers and businesses brightened a reflection of how record low lending rates were underpinning morale. A largely off week for Australia’s data calendar next week should see the antipodean currency take its cues from abroad," says Joe Manimbo at Western Union.

US Dollar: Has it Peaked?

A still subpar week for the U.S. economy weighed a little further on the greenback, as the Empire State index showed activity slowed more than expected to 14.7 in August from an April 2010 high of 25.6 in July.

The headline PPI slowed to an increase of 1.7 percent (y/y) in July, a tamer level than the prior month’s 1.9 percent (y/y) increase.

"The dollar may have peaked for now with markets likely to position carefully ahead of the Fed’s 3-day summit next week, commencing Thursday, at Jackson Hole, Wyo., a venue that in that past has served as a launching pad for what’s around the bend for bank policy. That can spell substantial catalysts for currencies, namely the dollar," says Manimbo.