- "GBP/AUD strength has accelerated over the past week"
- "momentum now turning higher"
- Price action could be leading the fundamentals says analyst
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The Pound has rallied against the Australian Dollar and a host of other major currencies over the course of the pat week, leading technical analysts at Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse to strike a more upbeat tone on the outlook.
Credit Suisse have noted a number of Pound exchange rate pairs have made significant technical moves as the mood music surrounding Brexit trade negotiations improve, which could signal further gains are possible.
"We are seeing significant breaks higher against a range of other currencies – notably NOK, SEK and potentially even AUD," says David Sneddon, an analyst at Credit Suisse.
The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) has risen for six days in succession, going as high as 1.8148 at one point on Monday.
The fundamental impetus appears to be investors recalibrating their expected odds of a deal being struck between the EU and UK ahead of a year-end deadline; odds of a deal have risen courtesy of a slew of newspaper reports suggesting the mood between the EU and UK has improved noticeably over the past week.
The rising odds of a deal are most clearly expressed in Sterling, which is now the best performing major currency of the past week:
"With negotiations between the UK and Europe now seen at a critical moment, we look for evidence of a fresh near-term base," says Sneddon. The headline GBP/USD exchange rate is identified as being in the process of forming a potential long-term base from which a more sustained recovery can build.
"If we are correct (and there is still a long way to go to see this confirmed) this would be a technical/price sign that some form of positive deal is going to be achieved, with price action often 'leading' the fundamentals," says Sneddon.
With regards to the GBP/AUD exchange rate outlook, Sneddon is also eyeing the formation of a potential base:
"GBP/AUD strength has accelerated over the past week, resulting in daily MACD momentum now turning higher and we look for a test of key price and 'neckline' resistance at 1.8391/1.8412.
"Whilst the picture is starting to look constructive, only above here though would see a base confirmed to mark a more important turn higher, with resistance seen next at the 200-day average and 38.2% retracement of the 2020 fall at 1.8778/1.8812, which we would expect to cap at first. The “measured base objective” though would be seen higher at 1.9295/1.9300."
The British Pound last week recorded its strongest advance against the Australian Dollar since January after it appreciated 2.4%, and momentum studies suggest further gains are possible as the market takes on an increasingly bullish feel.
The impetus in Sterling is reflected in a GBP/AUD exchange rate that has seen momentum flip from negative to positive, with the exchange rate bouncing back from a multi-month low at 1.7494 which was recorded mid-month.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) - which is used to determine the strength of momentum and can be seen in the lower pane in the below - sits at 60.77 which places it firmly in positive territory and advocates for further gains.
Furthermore, the exchange rate broke above its 50 day moving average on Thursday last week (blue line above) which some technical advocates say is a precursor to further gains over coming days.
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Goldman Sachs, UBS, Credit Suisse, JP Morgan give their views on the Dollar on a 'Blue Wave' outcome.