Pound Sterling Close to 'Basing' against Dollar says Credit Suisse Tech Analyst

- GBP/USD finds support at noted technical levels
- Call comes in key week for Brexit trade negotiations
- Price action could be 'leading' the fundamentals says CS's Sneddon

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  • GBP/USD spot rate at time of publication: 1.2871
  • Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.2521-1.2611
  • Transfer specialist rates (indicative guide): 1.2680-1.2755
  • More information on specialist provider rates

Technical analysts at investment bank Credit Suisse have taken a look at a number of major British Pound exchange rates and identified a number of positive developments that might suggest the UK currency has reached what will effectively prove to be its long time lows.

Of particular note is the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) which had been falling through the course of September but has since seen weakness fade as a number of support levels come into play.

"GBPUSD has fallen steadily in September after rejecting key resistance from its 1.3514 high of 2019 at the beginning of the month, but this decline has extended to and held our core objective of a cluster of supports at 1.2720/1.2655, including its 200-day average and key retracement levels," says David Sneddon, a technical strategist at Credit Suisse.

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Sneddon gives a nod to the fundamental developments that are underpinning Sterling when considering the potential for a technical base to be forming, namely that the mood music surrounding EU-UK post-Brexit trade negotiations appears to have improved over the course of the past ten days.

"With negotiations between the UK and Europe now seen at a critical moment, we look for evidence of a fresh near-term base," says Sneddon. "Indeed, with recent USD strength seen as corrective and with our broader view still long-term bearish, we continue to see bigger picture risk that GBP/USD may in fact in the process of constructing a long-term base."

"If we are correct (and there is still a long way to go to see this confirmed) this would be a technical/price sign that some form of positive deal is going to be achieved, with price action often 'leading' the fundamentals," adds Sneddon.

The UK and EU commence the ninth and final round of Brexit trade negotiations in Brussels on Thursday, with a briefing from the lead negotiators due on Thursday.

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The tone struck by the EU's Michel Barnier could be particularly instrumental in determining whether the Pound is indeed forming a base or whether further tests on the key supports identified by Sneddon ultimately transpire.

Credit Suisse's technical team hold a bias for 1.2655 to remain a floor for a test of a cluster of resistances at 1.2967/1.3007, including the 55-day average.

"Above here can mark a near- term base for a retest of long-term resistance at 1.3475/1.3514 – the 2019 high and recent September high. Whilst this should clearly continue to be respected, a weekly close above here would see a major base established to mark a long-term change of trend higher, with immediate resistance seen at 1.3620 – the 38.2% retracement of the 2014/2020 bear trend – ahead of the 2018 highs and 50% retracement at 1.4302/1.4377," says Sneddon.

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