Aus Dollar Forecast: "Resistance Level is Very Strong at 0.9425" for Aus Dollar

A look at the mid-market Australian rates at the time of writing shows:

• The pound sterling to Australian dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is at 1.8311..
• The euro to Australian dollar rate (EUR/AUD) is at 1.4582.
• The Australian to US dollar exchange rate (AUD/USD) is at 0.9371.
• The Australian to New Zealand dollar (AUD/NZD) is 0.40 pct down at 1.0780.

Please be aware that the above mid-market quotes are subject to a discretionary spread levied by your bank when making international payments. An independent FX provider will however seek to undercut your bank's offer and in some instances can deliver up to 5% more currency on execution. To learn more, please read here.

The Forecast for the Aus dollar: Hitting the limit

The Australian dollar has enjoyed a strong run lately climbing strongly over the past few weeks as the Reserve Bank of Australia has held a neutral stance when it comes to monetary policy, and as many believe the Australian economy will recover.

"The reality is a little hard to see at this stage, and there are a fair few traders and economists who believe there is still a very rocky horizon for the AUD/USD," warns a note from Blackwell Global concerning the exchange rate.

According to analyst Alex Gurr the forecast for the AUD is looking soft at this stage:

"The current resistance level is very strong at 0.9425 and is likely to hold in the near term as markets have truly found themselves a ceiling. What’s interesting though is the bullish trend line that accompanies the current movement higher. Many would look to follow this trend higher, but I believe that any push through would quickly get pushed back by traders."

So despite the AUDUSD continuing to climb, the ceiling at present is a sign that the market now believes that further momentum is likely to be on the downside as a result of the fundamental data at hand.

"I will be looking for that break through and probably a test of the 0.9205 level which is acting as the bottom of its present range, and hopefully a push through eventually," says Gurr.

The outlook for the AUD this week

It’s a busy week in Australia and Tuesday’s RBA Board policy meeting will be the focus.

"While we and the market are not expecting any change to the cash rate, the post-meeting statement is likely to continue to reflect the uncertainties around the outlook in line with the sentiment in the Minutes from the June meeting," say ANZ Research.

In terms of the data, May reads for retail sales and building approvals will be watched closely, given the trends in both have softened noticeably recently.

"While we are forecasting building approvals to have bounced back sharply in May, retail sales growth is expected to have declined modestly, reflecting the deterioration in consumer confidence and the warmer-than-usual weather in the month," say ANZ.

There are also a number of RBA officials speaking through the week, the most of important being RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, speaking on Thursday in Hobart.

Key dates for the Australian dollar

Tuesday: Chinese manufacturing PMI (June, final), 2.45am: This final revision of the index is forecast to see the number moved higher to 51.1 from 50.8. Market to watch: China A50, AUD/USD, copper, USD/JPY, Nikkei 225

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (July), 5.30am: The Australian central bank is not expected to make any changes to monetary policy, with the rate holding at 2.5%. Market to watch: AUD/USD

Thursday: China non-manufacturing PMI (June): This reading was 55.5 in May, so further growth will reassure investors about the health of the economy. Market to watch: China A50, AUD/USD