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The pound is tentatively better supported against the dollar with GBP/USD finding a clear line of defence at 1.3356 as day six of the Iran conflict unrolls.

It has not closed below here this week, despite dipping below here at various points - Tuesday's low was at 1.3253.

So we have a decent line in the sand for GBP/USD on a short-term timeframe that aligns with the sense that there are better days to come, a stark contrast to the panicky start to the week.

"Global markets are looking more positive today, if only a touch, largely driven by a let-up in oil prices after a volatile week for energy markets. Oil slipped back this morning, on the back of a five-day rally as the Trump administration signalled it’s considering several steps to tackle the recent surge in oil and gas prices," says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

This is the way it goes with conflict: the first days are the hardest for markets, and hard markets forge a strong dollar.

UniCredit says its baseline scenario is a short-lived disruption where military operations against Iran last for a few weeks, "after which tensions and energy disruption ease. Oil and natural gas prices gradually decline from recent highs."

Yet, even under this scenario, there's ample space for angst to fester in between now and the eventual ceasefire.

Polymarkets - the prediction market place - shows 'the collective brain' sees a 50/50 chance that a ceasefire is agreed by the end of April. By the end of March? Just 30% odds.

For the dollar, lingering uncertainty and headline watching are ultimately supportive and suggest periods of weakness (GBP/USD upside) will be short-lived.

"Unless there can be some real political breakthrough that leads to a ceasefire, the dollar won't be ready to resume a decline anytime soon," says Chris Turner, head of FX analysis at ING Bank N.V.

Kit Juckes, who heads FX research at Société Générale, says "whether the conflict is protracted or not, we do not expect to see the USD fall back significantly."

In a world where the dollar is biased higher, pound-dollar is biased lower and 1.3250 - Tuesday's lows - come into scope.

Beyond here is the 1.30 round number, but this would only come into play in the event of a marked rise in fear from an unforeseen escalation in the conflict.