New Zealand Dollar's Strong Christmas Seasonals: Barclays

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December gains, but longer-term strength is still in doubt.

The New Zealand dollar could be set to benefit from seasonal tailwinds into year-end, but it's too soon to fire the starting gun on an enduring rally.

This is according to Barclays, where currency market analysts see evidence of strong positive December seasonal activity in the SEK and NZD.

"For the NZD, seasonal strength seems to be linked with patterns in dairy exports," says the research.

Adding impetus to a December 2025 rally is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish cut, delivered last week.

Also helping was a bounce in third-quarter retail sales and certain surveys (such as the ANZ business and consumer confidence), and potentially stale longs in AUDNZD.

"We see scope for the rebound to extend tactically," says Barclays.

The RBNZ cut interest rates 25 basis points but signalled limited prospects for further interest rate cuts, bringing to an end an aggressive cutting cycle that has weighed against the New Zealand dollar.

Ending the cutting cycle has prompted numerous analysts to turn tactically bullish on the NZD.

However, Barclays sees that bullish potential extending on a short-term timeframe, saying it's too soon to fire the starting gun on an enduring rally.

"Further out, we maintain our doubts regarding the strength of New Zealand's recovery, pending more evidence of re-acceleration," says Barclays.

New Zealand's economy has struggled over recent years but it is hoped it is turning a corner. When the data confirms that turn in fortunes, the NZD will find more backers.