New Zealand Dollar a Compelling Buy Says Goldman Sachs
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Wall Street's most illustrious bank is also backing the Kiwi.
The New Zealand dollar is a buy with Goldman Sachs, confirming increasing institutional backing for one of 2025's biggest underperformers.
"We see a compelling case for NZD longs," says Goldman Sachs in a weekly strategy note, joining a host of others who see opportunity in backing New Zealand's currency.
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The call follows last week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision to lower interest rates but signal that the cutting cycle was effectively over.
After the RBNZ meeting and stronger retail sales data, "we argued that the burden of proof for NZD strength lies with New Zealand exhibiting some cyclical improvement after a series of RBNZ cuts. We think the surge in New Zealand’s Q3 retail sales, coupled with the RBNZ’s more hawkish guidance this week, meets the bar for turning more positive on NZD," says Goldman Sachs.
Last week, we reported that Citi, the world's largest FX dealer, said weakness in NZD was coming to an end.
Goldman Sachs is a buyer of the Kiwi against the Aussie "as AUD/NZD is driven more clearly by relative monetary policy than most other NZD crosses."
"Ultimately, we think positioning for NZD strength makes sense now given the green shoots in the data and broadly net short positioning in NZD," it adds.
The Australian dollar is also an outperformer following last week's inflation release nixed odds of further RBA rate reductions.
However, Goldman Sachs says the inflation data do not clearly argue for a shift in guidance by the RBA, given their already more hawkish stance in recent communications.
Elsewhere, the Wall Street bank sees a good reason to be bearish USD through the end of the year on another Fed cut.
