Pound vs. Indian Rupee Rate's Forecast for the Week Ahead

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GBP/INR has hit a significant chart level which could break its run higher, although for now it is continuing to rise as UK data surprises to the upside at the start of the week.

The Pound-to-Rupee exchange rate has been rising steadily in a channel since the April '17 lows but has now reached a 'glass ceiling' which could make further progress difficult.

The level in question (circled) is at the 2015 historic lows at 91.00.

Major lows or highs often attract extra buying or selling, and the 91.00 level will probably attract additional sellers looking to fade the uptrend mostly for short-term gains.

It is not just the historic lows which are likely to present an obstacle, the 50-month moving average and the 200-week moving averages (MAs) not far above, at 92.96 and 92.26 respectively, are also likely to present significant hurdles to further upside.

Major moving averages are nodes of liquidity where a greater-than-average volume of buying and selling takes place. This is due to many investors  - both institutional and private - using MAs to make investment decisions, e.g 'buy above the MA and sell below'.

There is also greater trading from short-term technical traders who often use MAs as places to fade the dominant trend and profit from the surrounding volatility.

Despite all the obstacles the pair remains in an uptrend (ever since the April lows), and since there is insufficient evidence to suggest it is reversing, the probabilities favour a continuation higher for now, albeit with the proviso that all the aforesaid resistance could change things.

We would, therefore, want to see a clearance above all the aforesaid resistance first before forecasting more upside. Such confirmation would come from a break above the 94.00 level with an initial target at 95.00.

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Data and Events to Watch for the Rupee

The main data release for the Rupee in the week ahead has already been released this morning, the Nikkei Services PMI, which showed a decline to 47.8 in February from 51.7 in the previous month.

It was a significant result as it was the first contraction since November 2017, and because a result below 50 is indicative of contraction for the whole sector rather than expansion (over 50). 

PMI is short for 'Purchasing Manager Index' which is a gauge calculated based on survey answers from purchasing managers in companies in the specific sector of the economy in question. 

The survey questions cover areas such as new orders, employment, activity, and prices. PMIs are considered important leading indicators for the economy.

The result is negative and combined with the higher-than-expected UK Services PMI result which was also released today, is probably the cause of GBP/INR's recovery to 89.99 from its early morning 89.50 lows.

Data and Events to Watch for the Pound

UK Services PMI data was also released this morning and came out at a higher-than-expected 54.5 from 53.0 previously. This helped Sterling rise across the board as it indicated the UK economy's largest sector was in fine health.

As far as major economic events for the Pound in the week ahead of principle interest is a speech from the Chancellor Philip Hammond on Brexit, which focuses on a bespoke deal for the UK's dominant services sector.

The UK has a services sector trade surplus with Europe so this could be important for the Pound, however, whether Hammond's proposals are likely to be accepted by Brussels is a different matter.

Other key releases include the trade balance in January, which is forecast to show the deficit narrowing to -12.2bn from -13.6bn previously, when it is released at 09.30 GMT on Friday.

Industrial production is out at the same time and is forecast to show a 1.1% rise month-on-month in January.

Manufacturing production, also out at 09.30 on Friday, is forecast to rise by 0.2% in January compared to the previous month.

Get up to 5% more foreign exchange by using a specialist provider to get closer to the real market rate and avoid the gaping spreads charged by your bank when providing currency. Learn more here.


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