If the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate can hold its current range through the volatile events of this week, its chances of going higher are enhanced.
EUR/USD has recovered since bottoming at the March 1 lows, recovering from 1.2154 to the current 1.2397, and if it remains around this level by the end of the week it will have built the foundations for the next push higher believes Société Générale macro strategist Kit Juckes.
"The foundations of a break higher in EUR/USD are slowly being built, and if we're around current levels after tomorrow's US labour market data, they may be complete," says Juckes.
SocGen's base-case prediction for today's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is that policy-makers will opt to leave the language of its 'forward guidance' unchanged despite saying it would remove the 'easing bias' in the message at the beginning of 2018.
The 'easing bias' is the proviso that if conditions worsen in the Euro-area it stands ready to increase stimulus, officially known as its Asset Purchase Programme, or APP for short.
"Given heightened market sensitivity, it is likely too early for the ECB to contemplate any changes in the APP guidance," quotes the SocGen strategist.
Juckes thinks this would probably be marginally, short-term, negative for the Euro given market expectations are currently for a change in the language as promised by the ECB at its December meeting, yet it would not be so negative so as to push the currency out of its current range.
"If we get radio silence and the straightest of straight bats from Mr. Draghi today, will that disappoint Euro bulls looking for a more hawkish tone? EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.2440 and support at 1.2290 and that might be today's range," says the macro strategist.
He goes onto suggest that if the exchange rate is still in that range after the other big event of the week Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, the indications are strong that a foundation will haver been built for a break above 1.2550 into new realms above.
"As was the case in Q4, the correction has been shallower than expected. But first, ECB and NFP," concludes Juckes.
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