"Sell America" Forecast to Propel Euro-Dollar Above 1.20: BoS
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Official White House Photo by Molly Riley
The euro could strengthen beyond $1.20 against the dollar over the next year as investors increasingly dump U.S. assets amid rising fiscal concerns, according to a new report by the Bank of Singapore.
In its latest economic outlook, the bank warned that a rare market phenomenon known as “Sell America”, where U.S. government bonds, equities and the dollar all fall simultaneously, is becoming more frequent in 2025. The trend, historically linked to market crises such as the 1987 Wall Street crash and the 1994 bond rout, has already occurred 10 times this year.
"We expect President Trump’s erratic policymaking is set to increase the number of 'Sell America' days," wrote Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist at the Bank of Singapore. "That keeps us cautious on long-term Treasuries and the U.S. dollar."
"We looked at the last five decades to see how often investors have chosen to ‘sell America’ and found Treasuries, the S&P and the USD have fallen together on just 10% of all trading days since 1971." - Bank of Singapore.
The report attributes the pressure on U.S. financial markets to investor unease over Washington’s tax-cutting agenda, swelling budget deficits and a weak Treasury auction that triggered a simultaneous selloff in stocks, bonds and the greenback.
Historically, such coordinated declines have occurred on only 10% of trading days since 1971, the report said, but periods of economic stress have seen that rate spike sharply. So far in 2025, the euro has gained more than 10% against the dollar, rising from $1.02 in January to around $1.13 this week.
“We think the greenback will weaken further over the next 12 months to 1.23 against the euro as investors reassess their U.S. exposures,” Mohi-uddin said.
The outlook underscores mounting global concern over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, with implications for capital flows, inflation expectations and central bank strategy.
The euro last traded above $1.23 in early 2018.
