Canadian Dollar Forecasts: Technical Deterioration Observed by Scotiabank, Hints at Further Losses

Canadian Dollar analysis Scotiabank

Image © COSPV, Adobe Stock

- USD/CAD steadily building upside momentum

- GBP/CAD forming a bull-flag with strong upside potential

- EUR/CAD forms a bull-flag and broken higher

Technical studies from Canadian lender Scotiabank suggest the Canadian Dollar is likely to lose further ground as a recent poor run extends.

The Canadian Dollar is one of the worst performing G10 currencies over the past week and month thanks to a combination of uncertainty over NAFTA negotiations and a broader sell-off in the commodity Dollar complex.

The Canadian Dollar joins the Australian and New Zealand Dollars in the so-called commodity Dollar complex of currencies that lean on elevated commodity prices to derive value.

All three have suffered losses as investors fear the U.S.-China trade war will impact global trade and commodity prices in turn.

Studying the market structure - via technical analysis - allows forecasters to ascertain the next potential targets and levels that might provide support.

 

USD vs. CAD

USD/CAD appears to have put in a 'floor' at around the 1.29 level and is now probably reversing.

Previously bearish momentum indicators are "muted" and "fading" and the convergence of an indicator called DMI hints at a "shift in the balance of risk," says Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

USD to CAD Scotiabank

Although we don't agree with his theory that a double bottom may be forming at the lower end of the current 3-month range (the low is not major enough) - or we cannot see it - we still see value in the overall bullish forecast.

"We anticipate an extension of USDCAD’s recent gains through 1.2950 and the psychologically important 1.3000 level toward the 50 and100 day MA’s around 1.3050," concludes Osborne's report.

USD to CAD daily

 

GBP vs. CAD

Luck is smiling on traders of the Pound-to-Canadian Dollar rate after it has formed a bull- flag pattern. Such patterns promise generous wins and this one appears ripe for the harvesting. 

GBP to CAD Daily

The flag has formed just underneath a major trendline containing gains since the start of the decline in March.

If it manages to break above the trendline, however, the flag is likely to make sizeable gains right up to the 1.74s.

Short-term moving averages and DMIs are all supporting the start of a rally.
Although not as ambitious as us in his upside target, Osborne still sees gains on the horizon.

"We are bullish targeting near-term gains toward the upper bound of the bull flag and the 100 day MA around 1.7150. Near-term support is expected at 1.6980 and 1.6920," says the strategist.

GBP to CAD Sept 19

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EUR vs. CAD

EUR/CAD appears to be similar to but one step more advanced than GBP/CAD - like an older sibling.

It has already formed a bull-flag and broken clearly to the upside; it too was trading under the confines of a trendline but has now successfully broken higher, at least on our charts.

In addition, Scotia's Osborne says, "Bullish momentum is building, trend strength indicators are firming, and the 9 day MA appears poised to break back above the 21 day MA."

When a smaller MA breaks above a larger one it is a bullish sign.

EUR to CAD daily

We see a potential move up to a target at 1.56 using the height of the 'flagpole' as a guide, as must technicians suggest.

"We are bullish targeting the early September high around the 200 day MA (1.5364) and look to near-term support between 1.5200 and 1.5150," says Osborne.

EUR CAD Scotia

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