Non Farm Payrolls Non Farm Payrolls Brexit Negotiations

The British Pound sits near the top of multi-week highs against a number of major currencies on the assumption a 'no deal' Brexit wil be avoided. However, we hear from a number of analysts that markets could be accused of being too sanguine.

The Pound has recovered back towards the top of recent ranges as foreign exchange markets believe Theresa May will ultimately secure the compromises required to gather a majority for her deal in the House of Commons.

Rolling updates on what the currency pundits are saying ahead of tonight's key parliamentary vote on the EU-UK Brexit deal.

From a technical perspective Pound Sterling is positively aligned against the Euro, but we are wary of a notable spike in volatility over coming days as the EU-UK Brexit deal is put in front of the UK parliament.

The British Pound is seen consolidating recent gains against both the Euro and U.S. Dollar as the countdown to parliament's meaningful vote on Brexit gets underway with parliamentarians set to start debating the merits of the deal today.

Betting markets are quoting odds of 3/1 that the British Pound will fall to parity against the Euro in 2019 while UK government ministers frantically deny they are putting out feelers on the prospect of delaying Brexit.

Pound Sterling suffers soft start to 2019 trade but could be boosted if May's deal succeeds mid-month.

The Pound trades with a soft undertone Friday, nursing a weekly loss of 0.5% against the Euro and 0.75% against the Dollar ahead of the weekend on news there has been no last-minute concession from the European Union to help sell the Brexit deal to a divided parliament.

Pound Sterling remains driven by Brexit and the next instazllment in the saga sees Theresa May head to Brussels to hear what concesssions they will offer her.

- May says she will stand down before next election - May expected to survive vote - GBP enjoys strong recovery - Further gains topped to be limited by analyst.

Pound Sterling has relinquished the day's recovery on headlines that a no confidence vote is to be called on Theresa May's leadership of the Conservative party.

Political developments in the UK point to yet further uncertainty and we would expect the British Pound to remain under pressure over coming days as a result.

- May to make statement to parliament at 15:30 GMT - Sterling dips on news Brexit vote in parliament is off - ECJ rules UK can stay in European Union - ECJ Ruling to weaponise stance of remain-leaning MPs.

The U.S. Dollar slumped Friday after November's eagerly-awaited nonfarm payrolls number surprised on the downside and after the report showed wage growth also declining during the recent month.

The Pound will rise by almost eight percent against the Dollar before the UK leaves the European Union, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who say the currency offers investors a unique opportunity at the moment. 

The probability of the UK remaining in the EU has now doubled to 40%, the highest it has been since the referendum, say analysts at investment bank JP Morgan, offering a fundamental view that supports the formation of a technical floor we see forming under the Pound.

The Pound will have to endure a volatile December that could yet result in punishing losses if things go the wrong way for the government but the overall risk for Sterling is now tilting toward the upside, according to RBC Capital Markets. 

Pound Sterling could be protected from significant weakness over coming days and weeks on moves by parliamentarians to prevent a 'no deal' Brexit taking place in March 2019, however we expect the currency to maintain a soft undertone ahead of the key December 11 Brexit vote.

Bank of England policy makers have stood by analysis suggesting the British Pound is at risk of losing substantial ground in the event of a disruptive 'no deal' Brexit taking place in 2019.

A delay to the deadline for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is now a highly likely Brexit scenario given fierce opposition to the government’s deal, says Handelsbanken, and this will keep Sterling under pressure during 2019.