“Our US economics team expects three hikes in 2019, and the market is priced for about one. We also see the risk of four hikes this year,” - Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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Markets are expecting a coalition would see increased government spending and another bout of “European integration”, with both being positive for growth, but an SPD rejection would scupper this.
Read more … →Political risks resurface to harry the Euro in the week ahead.
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Eurozone politics will dominate the Euro in the week ahead but the ECB, QE and an eventual rise in European government bond yields will be more important for the Euro-to-Dollar rate in 2018.
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EUR/USD is looking increasingly vulnerable to breaking down despite its long-term uptrend - is this the final bend at the end of the trend?
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After a nine month period of calm seas and stellar gains, politics are returning to haunt the Euro, with risks around the German coalition agreement and the Italian election both being underpriced.
Read more … →EUR/USD is looking increasingly toppy and together with expectations that US interest rates might rise even more rapidly than previously assumed reinforces a bearish bias.
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