Pound to Euro Rate: 2026 Investment Bank Consensus Forecast Released

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Our survey of over 30 investment bank forecasts shows the pound is trading well ahead of where it is expected to land in the coming months.

The newly released quarterly consensus forecast report, produced for Horizon Currency by Pound Sterling Live, reveals investment banks are anticipating a decline in the pound to euro exchange rate throughout 2026.

The resulting median and mean forecasts are considered highly accurate and serve as a rational anchor for future currency decisions. The report can be requested from Horizon Currency here.

It is built on polling data from more than 30 leading global financial institutions and indicates the British pound is currently trading at levels significantly above where analysts expect it to settle in the first quarter.

The consensus median forecast for the next three, six, nine and twelve months has been downgraded from the previous quarterly survey conducted in October. The report is releaed following a recovery in the pound through the late-2025 and early-2026 period.

"Sterling, having retaken September highs, looks susceptible for a material correction," says Jeremy Stretch, an analyst at CIBC.

The dispersion of forecasts suggests some institutions are happy to break away from the consensus and pencil in gains for the pound over the course of 2026.

Analysts surveyed by Pound Sterling Live routinely identified the Bank of England's monetary policy trajectory as a key driver behind the bearish sterling outlook.

"The pound faces specific domestic constraints that should lead to an outright decline... the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to continue easing monetary policy in 2026 to support a sluggish UK economy," says Sergio Capaldi, Fixed Income Strategist at Intesa Sanpaolo.

Strategy implications: If consensus is right, the anticipated decline is expected to have implications for individuals and businesses with euro transfer requirements over the coming months. 

Those planning to convert pounds into euros are likely to face less favourable rates if the consensus view materialises, with the timing of currency exchanges becoming increasingly.

Conversely, those converting sterling into euros may wish to act sooner rather than later to lock in current rates ahead of potential pound depreciation.

The report includes strategic recommendations for both directions of currency flow, with detailed examples of the financial impact of timing decisions.

Banks participating in the latest survey represent a cross-section of global financial institutions, including major Wall Street firms, European banks, and Asia-Pacific institutions.