GBP/AUD

An A-list appointment to head the RBNZ, higher public spending and rising inflation may not be enough to make up for a fading carry trade and continued political risk next year.

The GBP/AUD pair has risen strongly in the second half of 2017 but its rally is starting to look overdone, and we cannot rule out a pull-back lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia appears more bullish on the Australian economy but price action in US Treasuries will matter as much for the Aussie Dollar in December.

The Australian Dollar is trading with a bullish tenor as the new week begins - Retail Sales in Australia and the Bank of England (BOE) meeting take centre stage.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar has risen up to a key watershed level on the chart at a major multi-month trendline, and for holders of Pounds this provides a tantalizing opportunity to wait for a potentially much better exchange rate - but only if the pair breaks higher.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar continues weakening along with most GBP pairs as the new trading week begins, the main driver may be UK politics, with a further deterioration driven by a worsening outlook for  Brexit talks and Theresa May’s position as leader. 

Traders will be carefully monitoring the Pound-to-Australian Dollar this week as the exchange rate has reached a level of considerable importance.

The Pound will continue rising versus the Australian Dollar as a result of increased expectations that the Bank Of England (BOE) will increase interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is not likely to raise interest rates until 2020, according to research from Australian lender Westpac.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar pulled back at the end of last week after Theresa May’s speech in Florence undermined the Pound, whilst the Aussie firmed as long-term prospects eclipsed short-term wobbles associated with the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA).

GBP/AUD has broken out of a consolidation pattern following an higher-than-expected UK inflation data release and in the process moved above a key trendline which might shift direction for the exchange rate.

The Pound to Australian Dollar is currently trading sideways as both the Pound and the Aussie Dollar suffer under a barrage of negative news headlines.

A lack of upside momentum is concerning for those holding out for a stronger Pound against the Aussie Dollar, as such we remain bearish on balance in the absence of more compelling bullish evidence, expecting an eventual erosion of the trendline and a break lower to occur.

The Pound to Australian Dollar has been trending lower since its May highs but has just encountered a major trendline drawn from the pair's October lows and is bouncing.

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate has found support at a major trendline at last week's 1.6250 lows from which is bounced temporarily at the end of last week.

The Pound to Australian Dollar has continued to fall in its established downtrend following a bout of strength for the Aussie from rising commodity prices and some weakness for the Pound due to uncertainty over Brexit.

The Australian Dollar traded back and forth in volatile whipsaws on Friday in reaction to comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Philip Lowe, which were alternately undermining of and then supportive of the currency.

Analysts at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking have released their monthly currency report; below are the highlights for key Sterling pairs.

 The Australian Dollar was one of the losers on Wednesday after sabre-rattling between North Korea and the US stoked fears of a war breaking out, which led to a massive exodus from risk into safety.

The downtrend in the Pound to Australian Dollar looks at risk of resuming, as the new trading week begins.