It is not a good sign when a currency stops rising on good news but that appears to be what happened to the Dollar at the end of last week.
EUR/USD surged unexpectedly higher on Thursday, reaching highs of 1.07 but then gave back most of its gains on Friday as it moved back down to the lower 1.06s .
Too much political risk has been priced into the Euro, says RBC Capital Market’s Elsa Lignos, who sees a much lower (0.1%) probability of Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency than the market seems to be pricing in.
Traders who trade the news would have been bewildered by the rise of the Euro on Thursday.
The EUR/USD pair is pushing relentlessly lower.
The European Union (EU) is set to continue growing at a modest rate, according to a quarterly economic report authored by the European Commission
EUR/USD has broken out of its rising channel and fallen to a point above the downside target at 1.0605.
EUR/USD has broken out of a rising channel in a strongly bearish sign which indicates more downside is probably on the horizon.
Strategists at J P Morgan have been busy modeling the impact of a Le Pen victory in France on financial markets, including bond markets and foreign exchange.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley are advocating EUR/USD be sold, at the start of the trading week.
The Euro has been slowly tracking higher through January as Eurozone data shows modest step-by-step improvements.
The EUR/USD continues rising inside an ascending channel which began at the December lows.
The Euro to Dollar rate has been rising steadily for six straight weeks but it is showing signs of vulnerability.
EUR/USD has the potential to rise this week if markets start to pull-back following Donald Trump’s inauguration speech.
Overall, we are constructive in our outlook for the EUR/USD exchange rate.
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