The Pound to Rand exchange rate (GBP/ZAR) is likely to extend its gradual decline as ZAR benefits from robust global sentiment.
A strong bounce in global stock markets in mid-week has played into the Rand's hands.
As seasoned Rand-watchers will know, one of the most important factor in the currency’s performance is global risk appetite – if that is riding high, so tends the Rand to.
Risk appetite was given a solid boost after Reuters claimed that the Italian government could take another €2 billion stake in Italy’s oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi.
This morning La Stampa (an Italian newspaper) stated that the country could ask for a €15 billion European Stability Mechanism loan, which would be used to aid not only Monte dei Paschi but a few of Italy’s other ailing banks.
Such loans have been used in other peripheral nations such as Greece and Spain over recent years.
"The potential for a Monte dei Paschi package from the Italian government is lifting the European markets this Wednesday," says Connor Campbell at Spreadex in London. "There have been multiple different reports about what could happen."
"Of course nothing has been confirmed, and the precarious political situation in Italy is going to make doing anything a lot more difficult," says Campbell.
Nevertheless, European markets are sharply higher as is the JSE 40 which is up by over half a percent.
Technical Forecasts for GBP/ZAR
GBP/ZAR is currently trading at 17.3897.
The pair has pulled back after breaking above a key trendline in mid-November.
This is called a ‘throwback’ and is a common occurrence on price charts after the asset’s price has breached a trendline or other key level.
It simply means the exchange rate is pausing and correcting whilst it does some ‘backing and filling’.
We expect the short-term trend higher to reassert itself once the throwback is complete.
Nevertheless, given the strong longer-term downtrend we would seek further confirmation from a break above the 18.2875 highs.
We would expect such a move to then target resistance at around 18.5000, provided by the R1 monthly pivot, a level where traders often open orders against the prevailing trend.