Dollar Tailwinds Hard to Ignore: Corpay

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It's increasingly difficult to justify selling dollars, says a seasoned FX market analyst we follow.

Karl Schamotta at Corpay - the global payments firm - says he's "struggling to see the case for a dollar-bearish" setup.

"While U.S. exceptionalism may fade over time, the near-term backdrop remains favourable: inflation is easing, labour markets are holding up and growth is still strong," he explains.

He adds that U.S. tailwinds could build as tax refunds arrive, uncertainty recedes and business investment firms.

The dollar raised eyebrows last week having failed to rally in the wake of a decidedly supportive set of domestic labour market data, where non-farm payrolls comfortably beat consensus expectations.

Analysts say this is a sign that the market wants to sell dollars on the view U.S. exceptionalism is done and domestic policy under the Trump administration is more of a hinderance than a help.

However, Schamotta says it will be difficult to argue that U.S. exceptionalism is done based on the evidence:

"Consensus is gradually shifting toward another year of US outperformance, and a comparable improvement elsewhere is harder to identify," says Schamotta.

"At some point, that should support a hawkish repricing in the dollar," he adds.

Given the economy's sturdiness, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in haste, which is ultimately a fundamental source of support for the Greenback.

The Fed's recent policy decision statement noted activity was "expanding at a solid pace" and unemployment was showing "some signs of stabilisation".

Schamotta says this shows officials were growing less concerned about downside risks and more comfortable with an extended pause in rates at current levels.

🎯 GBP/USD year-ahead forecast: Consensus targets from our survey of over 30 investment bank projections. Request your copy.