Pound to Dollar Year-Ahead Forecast: Investment Bank Consensus Targets Revealed
- Written by: Gary Howes
The GBP/USD is expected to weaken modestly against major counterparts, investment bank forecasts show.
Pound Sterling Live's year-ahead poll - derived from over 30 investment banks - shows a broad downgrade revision for pound sterling when compared to the previous poll conducted in October of last year.
The poll shows the median forecast for the pound to dollar exchange rate slipping below the prevailing spot rate near 1.3450 by March, signalling that strategists as a group see limited upside for sterling against the dollar over the near term.
The aggregated median targets for March, June, September and year-end are considered the most credible targets for guiding future money transfer decisions. consensus. The report is produced by Pound Sterling Live for Horizon Currency and is available on request here.
The January survey marks a clear shift from the previous poll in October, with the median forecast for early 2026 revised lower, reinforcing the view that the pound is vulnerable to decline.
Looking further out, the median projection then rises towards year-end 2026, suggesting the broad belief that the pound will ultimately recover in later months.
It's also worth noting there's a wide forecast dispersion, with year-end 2026 projections spanning from as low as 1.27 to as high as 1.40.
Unicredit is the most bearish contributor in the survey, projecting GBP/USD at 1.27 by the end of 2026, placing it at the lower bound of the forecast range.
On the more constructive side, Commerzbank maintains the strongest year-end forecast at 1.40, while Goldman Sachs and UBS expect the pair to stabilise in the mid-1.30s over the course of the year.
From a practical perspective, the report notes that for households or businesses needing to buy dollars with pounds, the consensus profile favours acting sooner rather than later, while those buying pounds with dollars may benefit from waiting if the projected dip materialises.
