Euro-to-Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Uptrend Remains Intact

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The euro to dollar exchange rate is holding steady at 1.1863, with near-term weakness contained by a tight band of technical support that keeps the broader bullish structure intact.

Immediate support sits at the nine-day exponential moving average at 1.1860, followed closely by the 21-day EMA at 1.1829.

That 1.1860–1.1829 zone now forms a well-defined cushion beneath spot, reinforcing the view that the pair is consolidating rather than reversing.

This looks like a pause within an established uptrend.

The recent rally toward 1.20 left the market mildly stretched, and the current sideways drift allows momentum to reset without inflicting structural damage.

So long as EUR/USD holds above the 21-day EMA, dips are likely to attract buyers ahead of another attempt on 1.20 later in the first quarter.

The macro driver remains entrenched U.S. dollar weakness.

A renewed selloff in U.S. technology stocks, linked to concerns about AI valuations and broader earnings sustainability, has added weight to the argument that U.S. exceptionalism is fading.

As equity leadership narrows and volatility rises, the dollar’s premium across growth, yield and safe-haven dimensions is increasingly being questioned.

“Our dollar bearish view this year has been premised on a positive global growth environment where the dollar has lost its exceptionalism across yield, growth and safe-haven dimensions,” says Nordea Markets.

George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, strikes a similar tone, saying that the dollar’s dominance across key macro pillars is eroding in a world where global growth is broadening.

With the technical picture aligned to the macro narrative, EUR/USD appears well supported on dips.

Unless the supportive moving average band gives way decisively, the path of least resistance remains higher, with 1.20 shifting from a distant objective to a plausible near-term retest.

Week Ahead Forecast (Highest Probability)

The base case is for consolidation above the 1.1825–1.1860 support band, followed by a gradual attempt to push back toward 1.1950–1.2000 later in the week or into early next week. The broader uptrend remains intact while price holds above the 21-day EMA at 1.1829. A sustained break below that level would weaken the structure and open the door to a deeper pullback toward 1.1750, but for now the path of least resistance remains mildly higher as USD weakness continues to underpin the pair.

Strategic Overlay – EUR/USD Payments

With EUR/USD structurally supported and 1.20 back in focus, those needing to buy dollars (sell EUR) face greater near-term risk and should consider covering at least part of their requirement while the pair remains below 1.19. Those needing to buy euros (sell USD) can afford slightly more patience while support at 1.1825–1.1860 holds, but should have protection in place in case a break above 1.19 accelerates toward 1.20.

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