Pound-to-Euro On Target for End-March Forecast Target

Image © Adobe Images

Pound sterling’s performance against the euro is, at this stage, unfolding broadly in line with what the world’s largest investment banks anticipated at the start of the year.

GBP/EUR trades around 1.1450, leaving it modestly above the central consensus derived from the January survey of more than 30 leading institutions conducted by Pound Sterling Live on behalf of Horizon Currency.

The first formal checkpoint for those year-ahead projections falls at the end of the first quarter, meaning there remains sufficient time for spot to converge toward the institutional median.

Consensus forecast targets are derived from a survey of over 30 investment banks and give a highly credible set of targets to aim for. They are available on request from Horizon Currency.

In foreign exchange terms, a move of around one per cent over several weeks sits comfortably within normal quarterly volatility for this pair.

That matters because the January survey showed a clear downward revision trend compared to the prior poll, signalling that analysts had turned more cautious on sterling’s trajectory through 2026.

"Optimists are few and far between as the government tumbles into another leadership crisis and global uncertainty levels remain high. The pound’s recent gains look fragile," says Karl Schamotta, analyst at Corpay.

GBP/EUR orbits within a realistic convergence band, meaning the aggregated forecast remains viable rather than invalidated.

This is precisely why consensus forecasting carries weight.

Individual banks can be spectacularly right or conspicuously wrong in isolation.

But when more than 30 global institutions combine their macro models, rate assumptions and political risk assessments, the median outcome becomes statistically more robust than any single house view.

Forecast dispersion within the survey underlines uncertainty, yet the central tendency reflects the most probable path based on the combined analytical firepower of the world’s largest research teams.

For businesses and private clients with euro exposure, this consensus effectively represents the most credible benchmark available.

It is not about predicting the exact intraday high or low, but rather identifying the direction of travel and managing budget risk against the most informed collective expectation in the market.

Clients who want the full bank-by-bank breakdown, dispersion ranges and strategic implications can request the complete institutional forecast pack directly from Horizon Currency.

"So long as the recent weakness in hiring, coupled with the sharp slowdown in wage growth, continues, we expect a March cut from the BoE, followed by another move in June," says Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING Bank. "Our view remains broadly bullish on EUR/GBP on the back of this."