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Desjardins: Canadian Dollar Recovery Forecast to Accelerate in 2021

Canadian Dollar

Image © Bank of Canada

  • GBP/CAD spot rate at time of publication: 1.7370
  • Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.6760-1.6884
  • FX specialist rates (indicative guide): 1.6980-1.7215
  • Please see here for more information on bank beating rates

Canadian lender Desjardins Bank have updated their Canadian Dollar forecasts, saying the currency is likely to struggle for the remainder of 2020, but a more robust recovery should shape up in 2021.

The Canadian Dollar has been one of of 2020 laggards, recording a loss of 6.0% against the Euro, a 1.21% loss against the Dollar and a 0.60% loss against the Pound.

However it does appear to have picked up a head of steam over the course of the past month, outperforming all its major peers, reflecting the conflicting forces driving the currency's valuation.

"The economic recovery also seems to be well underway in Canada. The comeback in certain commodity prices is another good thing for the loonie. However, the Bank of Canada seems to want to maintain a high degree of intervention over the long term, which could rein in the loonie’s gains against other currencies," says François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist at Desjardins.

The Canadian Dollar is expected to maintain its soft tone for the remainder of 2020 by Desjardins, however a more substantial recovery should materialise in 2021 at which point it could start to outperform its peers.

The Pound-to-Canadian Dollar exchange rate is forecast at 1.7467 by the end of the third quarter 2020, 1.7297 by year-end, 1.7333 by the end of March 2021 and 1.7237 by the end of June 2021. The current spot price for GBP/CAD is at 1.7325.

The U.S. Dollar-Canadian Dollar exchange rate is forecast at 1.3333 by the end of September 2020, 1.3514 by year-end, 1.333 by the end of March 2021 and 1.3158 by the end of June 2021. The current spot price of USD/CAD is at 1.3146.

The Euro-Canadian Dollar exchange rate is forecast to be at 1.5600 by the end of September, 1.5541 by year-end, 1.5600 by the end of March 2021 and 1.5658 by the end of June 2021. The current spit price of EUR/CAD is at 1.5488.


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