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Dollar-Yen Biased Towards Downside, Sell Rallies

Dollar Yen

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The Dollar-Yen exchange rate is at 105.39 at the start of the new week with the exchange rate retaining a narrow multi-day range. Analyst Richard Perry of Hantec Markets says technical studies suggest any short-term strength is an opportunity to sell.

As with so many major forex pairs, the past few sessions have shown a lack of real direction.

For Dollar/Yen though, the overall bias is still towards the downside.

The three and a half month downtrend is now falling at 105.90 today, whilst Dollar/Yen has struggled to overcome 105.50 for the past few sessions.

Dollar Yen outlook

It still points towards using near term rallies as a chance to sell for pressure on 104.90. We also favour an eventual downside break. The resistance around 106.00/106.10 is growing.

The hourly chart shows hourly RSI consistently faltering around 60, which at best means consolidation in the past few days. A move above 105.60 could be an early sign of recovery, but we would still expect a rally to falter fairly quickly.

Markets continue to trade with a lack of certainty as newsflow of major macro factors remain on a knife edge.

However, slight chinks of light over the weekend are generating a mild positive risk bias this morning.

In one final attempt to break a deadlock on US fiscal support, Democrat House Speaker Pelosi gave a 48 hour deadline over the weekend.

It means that the next couple of days could generate elevated volatility on any announcements, but markets are taking this as a positive.

Furthermore, although no agreement has been reached yet between the EU and UK on a post-Brexit trade deal, there were suggestions over the weekend, that there could be changes to the controversial UK Internal Market Bill in order to ease the log-jam.

Sterling has ticked higher early today.

China’s Q3 GDP missed expectations (4.9% actual, versus 5.2% forecast), although other data for September (Retail Sales and Industrial Production) beat expectations to ease any negative aspect from the growth data.

Taking all that in, there is a very slight edge of positive bias to sentiment this morning. US yields are ticking higher, which is translating to marginal US dollar weakness (USD is still very much acting as a safe haven now).

US equity futures are taking a bit of a lead too, but this is coming to balance a disappointing drop into the close on Friday.