Above: File image of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Image © Federal Reserve.
The analysis offered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reveals a large shift in the Fed's risk assessment, which will be "problematic" for the Dollar.
This is according to a new analysis of Federal Reserve policy by the market analysis team at Lloyds Bank.
"While there was caution on the price risks presented from tariffs, and he reiterated the central bank would ensure that one-time price increases did not become an ongoing problem, there was a more activist view on how those stacked up against the labour market," says the analysis.
The Dollar fell after Powell condoned an interest rate reduction in September during a speech given at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Despite still seeing upside risks to U.S. inflation, Powell said "the balance of risks appears to be shifting" towards the issue of unemployment where risks are to the downside.
He dwelled on recent downward revisions to the July payrolls report as evidence that the Fed was reliant on data that might have overemphasised the labour market's robustness.
"This is an uncomfortable contradiction for policy makers, but one Powell felt the Fed could manage proactively, given that monetary policy is still mildly restrictive," explains the analysis from Lloyds.
"That shift might warrant adjusting interest rates lower in September — a critical shift in view," it adds.
Powell repeated the guidance that the Fed won't pre-commit to future policy and that decisions would be determined by the incoming data.
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"That is easier to commit to than putting the cat (or dove) back in the bag though!" says Lloyds, explaining how the Fed had to contend with a market that has already gone a long way in preparing for interest rate cuts:
"The market was already pricing in a good chance of a September cut (~80%), but the tone used clears a path for the Fed to do more if required (pre-Powell there were only three cuts in by March)."
For the Dollar outlook, the prospect of lower interest rates and the potential for elevated inflation should keep long-term bond yields elevated and the Dollar pressured, we are told.
"That mix of the prospect for rate cuts, alongside a tolerance for higher (already sticky) inflation, looks problematic for both the U.S. dollar and longer-term interest rates," says Lloyds.
