The GBP/CAD exchange rate is at a key technical juncture - our latest studies try and anticipate whether the pair is at risk of breaking down and invalidating its October-November rally.
It has been a good month few weeks for the GBP/CAD which bounced off 2016 lows ~1.5933 to recover to a November high at 1.7120.
The rally has since faded and the question we are left asking is whether this is the end of the rally?
The resillience of support will be key.
The Canadian Dollar has made several attempts to push GBP/CAD lower but each attempt to break support has thus far failed.
A break below the most recent lows at 1.6550 would probably confirm a clear break lower, however, despite several false starts.
Such a move would probably fall an equal distance as the move prior to the trendline break, down from the 1.7100 peak, reaching support from the central monthly pivot (PP) at 1.6350.
Monthly pivots are important support levels where prices often rebound due to buying or selling pressure.
The MACD indicator is weakening and has just crossed its signal line inferring a bearish outlook
Despite the risk of a break below the trendline the uptrend remains intact as long as the trendline remains unbroken and is therefore still expected to resume eventually.
A move above the 1.7127 highs would probably confirm an extension up to a target at the monthly pivot (R2) at 1.7500.
Corrective not Impulsive
That more downside could be on the cards seems to the conclusion of Scotiabank’s FX Strategist Saun Osborne.
The recovery from the October lows is viewed as merely corrective rather than trending argues Osborne.
“It is notable that the GBP rebound has not made a new cycle high in this recovery, however, which suggests that the move up in the past few weeks has been corrective and that the broader trend lower remains intact,” said Scotiabank’s strategist.
He sees 1.66 as pivotal to the pair’s next move – “above bid; below offered.”
Longer-term Osborne sees weakness.
“We still rather think longer-term technical pointers suggest the GBP is heading back to the 1.52/1.55 range. Look to sell GBP rallies,” he said.
From a data perspective, the highlight of the week for the Canadian Dollar is Retail Sales in September which is released on Tuesday, November 22 at 13.30 (GMT).
Canadian Retail Data Undershoots
Retails Sales saw headline Sales come out at 0.6% mom in line with expectations but Core Sales failed to rise, coming out at only 0.0% versus the 0.5% forecast.
The UK Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on Wednesday 23 could provide volatility as the level of stimulus he decides to incorporate could impact on Sterling.
The start of the week has seen the pound rise as a result of softer Brexit speech from May and lower net public sector borrowing data, which could make things easier for the Chancellor to be more expansive on Wednesday.